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There are still 17 races to be played in this season of Formula 1, but it's hard to see how Ferrari can fight for the championship.
For the first time in its history, Mercedes has signed four double at the beginning of the season. It is true that, as said by his boss Toto Wolff, these raw statistics will "flatter" his team, it is the same for Ferrari does not really seem able to seriously threaten them.
The record that Mercedes beat was established by Williams in 1992. What is curious about this is that Nigel Mansell's famous FW14B had a much bigger advantage over its competitors than the cars driven by Valtteri Bottas and Lewis. Hamilton.
This Mercedes has been, overall, the fastest car of the season, no question. But in 1992, Williams' average advantage over qualifying after the race, four seconds later, was 1.2 seconds. Mercedes's only 0.246secs.
What really makes the difference this year is that Mercedes – as a collective – operates at a level that is beyond the reach of its rivals.
As Hamilton has said, "As a team, we are shooting at full speed, they are not." In the words of the Ferrari driver, Sebastian Vettel: "We have the tools, we just have to bademble the package, I do not think our car is slow, the Mercedes is very fast but it seems easier for them to click. a little harder. "
Where is it bad for Ferrari
Before going to Baku, Ferrari would have already had to beat Mercedes in a race, and it would be so if the engine of Charles Leclerc had not fallen ill during the last rounds of Bahrain, while it was not the same. was preparing to win a dominant victory.
And if Ferrari had organized a perfect weekend in Baku, things could have been very different for them too.
As in Bahrain, Leclerc looked like the key man, but this time it was his fault if the first victory had escaped him.
A fall in second qualifying took the 21-year-old out. His time was still fast enough to be in the top 10, but the car was in pieces and could not take part. That meant we would qualify for 10th place, which became eighth on the grid after the penalties for the other drivers.
From there, the victory would always be difficult if there was no safety car to equalize things. He led for a while because of the variation in strategy. But Ferrari did not help him defeat Red Bull's Max Verstappen in fourth place by costing him eight seconds, leaving him seemingly unnecessarily absent for two laps after being overtaken and overtaken by the leaders.
After that, he was too far back and all that was left to do was to aim for the fastest point of the lap.
Leclerc also had to start the race with intermediate tires, which, according to him, would not have been the case if the qualifying race had been planned.
But this raises the question of why he and Vettel made their first rounds in second qualifying on mediums in the first place. The answer to that was that they had to do it – but it was their choice, born from their race plan through practice.
Ferrari had used an extra set of softer tires faster in Saturday's final test. Mercedes, on the other hand, had used several mediums at the beginning of the session – a deliberate choice so that his drivers could use soft skills throughout the qualifications. They thought it was better on a track where grip levels are constantly changing, the temperature drops during qualifying sessions at sunset and where grip is low anyway.
Why, he thinks, give their riders the complication of having to go from soft to moderately sturdy tires and then back in mid-qualifying when the situation was already difficult enough? In running the midfielder in the first position in the second qualifying round, there was also the risk that a fall and a red flag could compromise a second run, or even a place in the last session.
Leclerc was very hard on himself after his fall, saying he was "stupid". And clearly, he should not have done it. But tires were a contributing factor. What happened, he said, was that he braked at the same point in the Turn Hight turn that he had previously been on softs – and that the level of grip was not there to support him.
"The performance was there to make pole position," said Leclerc.
Even with Leclerc absent, Vettel should have been able to fight for pole. But he made his qualifying round without towing, and that's because Mercedes pushed Ferrari to follow them early at the pits, forcing their drivers to stop at the exit of the pit lane and pretend to test starts by letting Vettel pbad.
Running alone at the front of the line of cars, he chose to stay put and make sure that he had his tires under the right window, rather than slowing down and letting somebody pbad by. One for both. Vettel stated that he thought it was the right call in the end, but he admitted in the same sentence that he "regretted somehow" that he did not want it to happen. had not taken the gamble to get caught.
In addition to driving errors and sometimes questionable operational management (a recurring theme throughout last year), Ferrari is also struggling to keep the tires in the temperature window at which they work best.
"The secret this year seems to be the tires and maybe we're missing something," said Vettel. "We have a little more trouble with tires than in previous years."
The German added: "Of course, we were not really there for the last four races, so I think we are not the favorites for the next race in Barcelona, but the team is good. We have another couple of things happening on the car, so we need to chase them away.
"We hope to be able to have a smooth weekend – our first four weekends have not been so smooth, but it will be crucial to catch up with them and make a difference."
Hamilton v Bottas
Ferrari's efforts left both Mercedes drivers one point from the top of the overall standings, Bottas ahead of Hamilton, and 35 and 34 points respectively ahead of Vettel, who finally took third place ahead of Max Verstappen of Red Bull.
Much has been said about the so-called invigorated Bottas this season, but the facts are that he also would have led the championship at this point last year, had he not lost the victory in Baku because of a puncture at the end of the race.
It is now two victories for the Mercedes riders, the point separating them being the one that Bottas scored for the best lap en route to victory in the first race of the season in Australia.
Hamilton, however, was well aware that he should have won Sunday though he had not started with his failure to take pole this Saturday, result of cold tires at the start of his last lap and the following day. 39, errors in the first two corners.
It was a good 0.3 seconds after the first laps, but those mistakes cost him that time at the start of the decisive turn. He almost caught up in the last two sectors of the round, but eventually lost to Bottas for just 0.059sec.
Hamilton nearly took the lead when he made a better start than his teammate, but after taking part in Bottas in the first corner, he was exceptionally accommodating with the Finn. And after a bit of battle, the world champion came back to second place.
Hamilton admitted that he had to take a slightly different approach than his teammate compared to a pilot from another team, but he still said: "I was a little too kind at first, it will not happen again. "
After that, the Mercedes drivers were allowed to run and, worried Mercedes, the tires might not go as far as Hamilton booked an attack in the final laps. But he lost ground during a late virtual safety car period – his mistake – and Bottas well controlled the race to keep Hamilton at bay.
Hamilton, who tends to be very strong in the second half of the season, will not be too worried about the results so far, but he admitted afterwards: "It was an average (weekend) I just have to improve my performances and if I was qualified on pole, the positions would have been reversed, so it was really a qualifying matter.
"Valtteri has really, clearly progressed this year, is really happy in the car and has shown a fantastic performance and a fantastic driving, so it will take very good performances both to surpbad us. And that's how it should be.
"I'm hoping that at some point, Ferrari will be part of the group among us.This weekend, I think they had the performance of being in the front row with their two. cars.
"It takes 100% delivery throughout the weekend, we, I think, were as close as possible to that, they will have to pick it up again if they want to fight us."
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