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Thursday, the debate in the paddock of Bahrain focused on the question of whether Ferrari could fail after failing to meet its impressive pace of pre-season testing – and on the basis of the ranking of the Friday's training session, it was a resounding yes. But a thorough badysis of the data suggests that the rebound may not be as dramatic as it seems …
ONE TIME
Sebastian Vettel stole the show on Friday, comfortably beating time with an impressive 0.6 seconds. That was after his second soft tire race in the second practice session – an unusual approach, given that teams usually only perform one race and save a set for Saturday morning practice sessions. . One of the reasons for this, of course, is that the 3rd PCRD in Bahrain is not representative because it takes place during the heat of the day during qualifying and the race looks cooler. However, this was not the approach taken by their rivals.
Best individual tour (combined sessions)
All times are set on bases other than Alfa Romeo (mediums)
1 Ferrari (Sebastian Vettel) 1: 28.846s
2 Mercedes (Lewis Hamilton) 1: 29.449 + 0.603
3 Renault (Nico Hulkenberg) 1: 29.669s + 0.823s
4 Red Bull Racing (Max Verstappen) 1: 29.725s + 0.879s
5 Haas (Kevin Magnussen) 1: 30,000 + 1.154s
6 McLaren (Lando Norris) 1: 30,017s + 1,171s
7 Toro Rosso (Daniil Kvyat) 1: 30.093s + 1.247s
8 race points (Sergio Perez) 1: 30,716s + 1,870s
9 Alfa Romeo (Kimi Raikkonen) 1: 31.088s + 2.224s
10 Williams (George Russell) 1: 31.904s + 3.058s
Vettel is generally not very enthusiastic on Friday, but he was somewhat surprised that he was slightly disappointed when he spoke with the media after the session. Despite the timesheets, he said that Ferrari had a lot of work to do and that it was Mercedes that looked fast. You can say, he plays games in the spirit, but then we heard the team director, Mattia Binotto, and it seems that he was not there.
Ferrari explains why he expects a tight fight against Bahrain despite his dominant Friday
Ferrari was following a different schedule on Friday from its usual plan to see if the corrections and solutions to the problems encountered in Australia were a success. Binotto said the result was clear if you looked at the GPS data, as Ferrari decided to raise its engine higher than they would normally do on a Friday.
As you can see in the diagram below, our data shows that they were three tenths of a second ahead of their rivals Mercedes on straight lines and almost half a second ahead of Red Bull. Talk to some in the paddock, however, and we think the gap is even bigger – maybe even double, which would explain the ultimate gap between Vettel and Hamilton in the framework of the 3rd PCRD. Maybe that's why Ferrari – which was also at the top in slow and medium turns, but slightly behind Mercedes in faster turns than the Australian case – is cautious and expects thereafter at a tight battle on Saturday.
Red Bull is unusually fourth in lap rankings, but Max Verstappen admitted he made a mistake in the last corner of his soft tire race, which cost him a few tenths. If you adjust to that, Red Bull would be the third overall.
However, it was an impressive performance by Renault, who seems to be well free of a very tight midfield and should be able to easily enter Q3. The last two places in the shootout will be a hotly contested affair, with Haas, McLaren and Toro Rosso separated by less than a tenth.
Sergio Perez and Lance Stroll admit that the car is running out of pace with Australia, while Alfa Romeo had a nightmare with the second edition of the race. Their cars managed only 16 laps, thanks to water leaks. Williams brought back one more time, with George Russell, the happiest of the two drivers. Expect the rest of the weekend to be largely an investigative mission.
RACE PACE
While Ferrari was leading in terms of speed of a lap, it was his rival Mercedes who excelled in preparation for the race. Andrew Shovlin, director of Trackside Engineering, said that the winners of the Australian GP and Australian Valtteri Bottas were more satisfied with the car when they entered the second session, with a takeover on the cooler track.
Their long-term transit times seemed very consistent during the tests, and the data we collected seem to confirm them. Of course, there is the usual caveat that we do not know what fuel load and what engine parameters are used, but using what we have, Mercedes is at the top – by far.
They took advantage of a half-second lead per lap on Red Bull, whose drivers were very encouraged by their longer run in FP2. Ferrari is only a fraction behind them, but since the Scuderia had a different program and they did not seem too concerned about this pace, it is unlikely that the deficit of their rivals in the title title is also important.
Toro Rosso was the best of the rest, but 0.7s slower per lap. It will be tight between them, Haas, Renault and Racing Point regarding the race pace Sunday, according to the numbers, the quartet being separated by a half-second.
There is no data for Alfa Romeo because they did not last long. McLaren is eighth in terms of long-term speed, but the team's impression is that it is more competitive than that. Williams, however, is likely to have a long Sunday night.
VERDICT
What is exciting is too tight to call at this moment, as Ferrari and Mercedes were running very different programs. At the very least, Ferrari seems to have regained some of the pace it showed in the trials, although this is partly due to the different layout of the track, which is less bumpy and more traditional.
But we still do not know if they have found enough money to return to Mercedes on a track where the Scuderia was victorious 12 months ago. Expect Mercedes to improve its engines on Saturday, as usually do. Red Bull seems to be struggling to make an impact on Saturday afternoon, unless they discover something in the FP3, but will be more of a threat on Sunday.
Renault then seeks to have the advantage over the midfield, especially in terms of speed of qualification, but the fighter squad remains tight and this augurs well for qualifying and the race.
The weekend is finely organized so … which, frankly, is how we like it. Roll Saturday!
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