Bitcoin is now officially on its longest bear market of all time



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Bitcoin has officially entered the longest period of lower prices in its 10-year history.

The world's oldest and most valuable cryptocurrency reached a record of $ 19,764 on December 17, 2017 with CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index and has printed a series of higher prizes since February 2 (at UTC time), the prices of the 411th consecutive day are down.

As such, the last stretch of Bitcoin surpbades the duration of the infamous 2013-2015 bitcoin bear market, which lasted 410 days between high and low prices.

Bitcoin's historic prices fall

Indeed, the latest wave of lower prices for Bitcoin is the longest in terms of duration recorded by cryptocurrency, but it has not yet become the worst in terms of total depreciation.

As can be seen in the chart above, Bitcoin's first major bear market in 2011 lasted only 163 days, but remains the worst performer to date.

From $ 31.50 to $ 2.01, the price of bitcoin declined slightly by more than 93%, which is a more pronounced fall than the 2013-2015 bear market, which dropped by 86% over previous record. The current bear market has still not exceeded a depreciation by more than 84% from its historical peak, while its current prices, close to $ 3,400, are down 82%.

Nobody can know for sure if or when the bitcoin record will come to an end, but whether it's the moderate reaction of the market to the withdrawal of a much-awaited exchange-traded fund (ETF) to bitcoin or the next Event of halving the rate of deflation with the approach of Bitcoin, it seems that the evidence is beginning to emerge for a bitcoin fund in the not too distant future.

Weekly and historical chart divided by two

As part of Bitcoin's deflationary monetary policy, the exploited block rewards are halved every four years, or 210,000 blocks, slowing the creation of new bitcoins.

The event is now known as "halving" and has long been seen as a bullish catalyst for the price of bitcoin, as current or growing demand for cryptocurrency is expected to outweigh the slowdown in the production. In simple terms, demand being higher than supply, the valuation of the underlying badet is higher, regardless of the market.

As shown in the tweet below of CoinDesk Markets, the trend in bitcoin prices tends to tighten and increase significantly several months before the effective date of halving.

here is your #bitcoin halving and price guide.

– 1st reduction in half (28/11/2012): Price reached 378 days before, then 510%
– 2nd halving (07/09/2016): price reached 539 days before this rise, then 309%
– 3rd reduction of half (~ 05/25/2020): about 497 days until the reduction of half

Continued… pic.twitter.com/cULVhqDHGv

– CoinDesk Markets (@CoinDeskMarkets) January 31, 2019

Although the sample size is reduced, the bitcoin price that finds a floor 378 days before the 2012 split and 539 days before the 2016 split creates a "lower" average of 458 days or a year and a half before an event actually divided by two.

As the next halving is expected at the end of May 2020, there are only 500 days left in bitcoin. A potential deadline for the bear market may therefore not be too distant if investors anticipate the deflation of supply as they have done before. past.

Disclosure: The author holds the following rights: BTC, AST, REQ, OMG, FUEL, ZIL, 1st and AMP at the time of writing this article.

Image of wounded bear via Shutterstock; graphics by Tradingview.com

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