Brexit faces "thousands" of deaths from heart disease by 2030

PARIS: Thousands of additional people living in Britain are at risk of dying of heart attacks and strokes in the decade following the departure of Britain from the European Union while the cost imported fruits and vegetables are skyrocketing, a new study said Tuesday.
Britain must leave the EU on March 29 and it is far from certain what kind of agreement – if any, Prime Minister Theresa May will be able to do the strike and what effect it could have on trade.
It is heavily dependent on imports of food products, especially fruits and vegetables, and research published in the journal BMJ Open predict a generalized decline in consumption in all Brexit scenarios – as well as a concomitant risk to health long-term.
In the case of Brexit without an agreement, in which Britain would withdraw from the union without any agreement on future commercial relations, scientists at Imperial College London predicted up to 12,400 additional cardiovascular deaths during next 10 years in England.
"According to the rules of the World Trade Organization, the price of bananas would increase by 17%, that of oranges by 14% and the fruits we import the most will obviously be the most sensitive in terms of the increase of price, "said Christopher Millet, from the Imperial Oil Audience. health policy evaluation unit and lead author of the study.
"Under (not agreed), we expect an additional 12,400 deaths between 2021 and 2030 and, even with a free trade agreement, we expect about 6,000 additional deaths from heart and heart attacks," she said. he told AFP.
According to the British Heart Foundation, about 42,000 people die each year from cardiovascular disease in Britain.
Fruits and vegetables contain essential nutrients derived from fiber, vitamins, minerals and antioxidants, which have been proven during successive trials to improve cardiovascular function.
In 2017, Great Britain imported 84% of the fruits and 48% of the vegetables consumed. A large part of these came from EU countries, such as citrus fruits from Spain.
However, even fruit imported from third countries could be disrupted as Britain would have to either adopt WTO rules or conduct detailed bilateral trade negotiations country by country, which could lead to controls. longer customs and higher tariffs.
Millet and his team used the latest available statistics from the WTO and UK Customs to apply them to a food policy model combining a wide range of data on food, the economy and health to predict the impact on fruit and vegetable consumption in four possible Brexit scenarios.
Even if Britain concluded a free trade agreement with the bloc and other non-European countries with similar agreements with the EU, the consumption of fruits and vegetables would fall by at least 3 %, they said.
In the absence of agreement, this decline would be 11.4 percent for fruits and 9 percent for vegetables, potentially exposing tens of thousands of people to a higher risk of dying from an illness. stroke or heart attack.
"It's serious," said Millet. "British families will pay more for fruits and vegetables in all business options – this will affect the pocket of the average British family and this will have a real and significant effect on health."
MEPs are expected to vote Tuesday on how to proceed with Brexit after the first May deal with the EU was rejected by parliament.
On Monday, Britain's top supermarket executives urged lawmakers to avoid leaving without a deal or risking a drastic reduction in food availability.
Millet said politicians should take more account of the health impacts of Brexit and that the future burden of disease and death will impact health services.
"The British public did not necessarily know that the price of bananas would increase in such a way and what it would mean for the cost of daily living and the ability to ensure that your child eats well," he said. declared.
"These are the real implications (of Brexit)."