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A disordered economist would have major negative implications for the Republic of Ireland, warn his economists
Despite the economic disaster of Brexit, the fact that the UK left the EU has been beneficial for one profession: economists.
The Irish Ministry of Finance and the Dublin-based Institute for Economic and Social Research (ESRI) are the last to offer depressing forecasts.
They studied the implications of Brexit for the economy of the Republic of Ireland over a period of 10 years.
This highly reputable, independent but publicly funded institute examines three possible scenarios:
- The UK leaves with an agreement
- An orderly and dead-end exit
- A messy exit without agreement
In its report, ESRI finds that all scenarios are bad for the Irish economy.
However, a messy Brexit is by far the worst.
It predicts that 80,000 jobs could be at risk. economic growth would be down 5% over a 10-year period compared to what would happen if the UK stayed in the EU, and wages would fall by 1.4%.
The figures for a more orderly exit without agreement are broadly similar, but even with agreement, there is little good news.
According to ESRI, the most benign result will still be the expected economic growth of 2.6%, wages 0.7% and 45,000 fewer jobs.
The institute also plans a price hike, the pound sterling falling by 3 to 7% compared to the euro.
The disappointing results are in line with the German economic forecasts last week.
Bertelsmann Stifung estimated that Brexit could cost the Irishman 726 euros (£ 620) annually, which is the worst for a country other than the United Kingdom.
ESRI's latest findings are also bleaker than its June 2017 report that a rough or messy Brexit could threaten 49,000 jobs.
At the same time, a study commissioned by the Department of Economics of Stormont says that foreign direct investment (FDI) in Northern Ireland would be negatively affected if they left the EU single market. .
He notes that in a "no agreement" scenario, there would be "a reduction of 3% per year in the number of FDI projects from 2019 to 2030 and 3.6% of new FDI-related jobs". only one-off effects are taken into account ".
The report also concludes that unlike in other parts of the UK, Northern Ireland would become more attractive for FDI if it remained in the single market for goods and services.
Those who reject dark predictions often comfort themselves by claiming that God invented only economists to give astrologers a good look.
But as Brexit's final phase approaches, there is an extremely broad economic consensus that the UK leaving the EU is very bad news for Ireland – North and South – whatever the exit scenario.
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