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They will either vote in favor of Prime Minister Theresa May's deal, negotiated with the European Union, and put the country on the final path to leave the EU on March 29. Or they will vote against, leaving the British Parliament and the country. in the state of limbo he has lived for two and a half years.
At each calculation and forecast, May will lose the vote. Its conservative ruling party and its ally, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), hold a simple majority in the 650-seat parliament, but by some estimates the Brexit bill in May could be defeated by more than 100 votes.
The Prime Minister said Monday in the House of Commons that a "no deal" on Brexit could lead to the break-up of the UK and called on MPs to review his plan.
Even European leaders have tried to help the May campaign by issuing a statement Monday claiming that controversial support, an insurance policy intended to prevent a hard border in Ireland, would only be temporary – but lawmakers favorable to Brexit remained skeptical because of badurances no additional legal force.
Thus, with the exception of a few MPs who have changed their minds, it does not appear that May's attempts at persuasion have worked. The big question in Westminster is no longer whether she wins or not, but who will take control of the resounding story.
The latest attempts to minimize a crushing defeat for May disappeared Tuesday morning when House Speaker John Bercow refused to accept an amendment to a government law that could have brought more Tory Brexiteers to support May's agreement.
The amendment, tabled by Conservative MP Andrew Murrison, would have set a time limit at the most contentious blocking point for the Brexiteers, the support system of Northern Ireland. There was some skepticism that, even if this amendment had been adopted, it would have been accepted by the EU leaders.
But at least it could have avoided a three-digit defeat for May and changed the whole dynamic of the current Brexit situation. A separate amendment to ensure that the safety net was temporary was not retained either.
There will however be a vote that, if pbaded, would force the government to end the withdrawal agreement if the EU refused to abolish the backstop by the end of 2021. This vote will have place before the substantive vote on the May agreement, but it is unlikely that the prime minister will be saved from defeat.
May's helpers at Downing Street strive to keep the Prime Minister in control of events, even if she loses badly.
It is likely that she will deliver a speech in the House of Commons soon after the vote, outlining her next steps, possibly including an alternative plan that she could submit to the European Union for approval – before to go through Parliament.
Nevertheless, the factions of all political parties will be about to prepare their own narrative.
Pro-Brexit Conservatives, who tried unsuccessfully to overthrow May as prime minister in a vote of confidence last month, believe that Downing Street appears to announce May's defeat margin for the bill. could be greater than 200, making it the worst for a prime minister in British history – as a way to manage expectations and move an earlier defeat to minor victory.
These Brexiteers want to use the likely defeat to show that the government must take a radically different path – and leave the EU without a negotiated deal.
This is the most difficult of the Brexit models, but Euroskeptic's conservatives believe that this model will give the UK its cherished dream of freeing itself from the EU.
Election time?
On the opposition bench, the Labor Party led by Jeremy Corbyn will demand a general election if the May bill fails, in hopes of paving the way for further talks between a new government and the EU.
There is no indication that a motion of no confidence in the government presented by Corbyn – which, if successful, would trigger a general election – will be pbaded. Even if the Labor Party takes power, the party is as divided as the conservatives in Brexit and many MPs want the country to vote more definitively – through a second referendum that could see Britain remaining completely in the future. 39; EU.
Corbyn will face intense pressure from many lawmakers and grbadroots activists to support a second referendum as the only way out of the stalemate if he does not force the election.
There is a third main group that has launched a process to take control of Brexit: an informal coalition of MPs from all parties who want a sweeter Brexit than envisaged by the May agreement, a group that maintains economic links with the EU. , similar to the arrangement adopted by Norway – which occupies an extremely unusual territory both inside and outside the EU.
It is this group that could constitute the center of gravity within Parliament despite the fallout from May's likely defeat.
Anyway, the British Parliament will be the scene of a public relations war, while opposition factions will attempt to take control of Brexit from the political vacuum left by falling power. from May.
This show is likely to shock British voters, who do not know whether to take seriously the warnings of the ministries on stocks of drugs and food products and on the heavy queues in case of no -agreement.
It remains 73 days before Brexit and the feeling of uncertainty for ordinary voters is palpable.
This article has been updated to reflect the correct number of days before Brexit
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