Brexit: Will European leaders accept an extension?

Unlike the noise and fury that came from Westminster on Thursday night, the silence on the Twitter accounts of European leaders was deafening.

In part, it is surely a stunned silence. European politicians stared at the tumult of division and chaos that currently reigns in the House of Commons.

Three years after the UK decided to leave the EU – two weeks before the official Brexit day – Parliament seems to be collapsing without a unifying solution in sight.

European politicians are sighing deeply at the thought of prolonging the cross-Channel agony of the Brexit process in the Channel.

So are they going to go or will not they accept an extension? What conditions might they require and how long would Brexit be delayed?

Like many things to do with Brexit – the answer is: we are not 100% sure.

Earlier this week, a number of European leaders, including Frenchman Emmanuel Macron, Dutchman Mark Rutte and Spanishman Pedro Sanchez, seemed rather tough.

They would not agree to delay Brexit, they said, unless the Prime Minister offers a very good reason.

EU leaders are frustrated, irritated and tired by the Brexit process, but it should also be kept in mind that they have in mind two specific audiences right now when they turn to the cameras:

– British MPs on which the EU wants to lobby to vote in favor of the negotiated agreement of Theresa May or something else that Brussels believes realistic

– EU citizens about to vote in the next elections to the European Parliament. The message that the EU has for them is this: we are tough on those who ruin our club, so do not vote for Eurosceptic nationalists like Marine Le Pen!

The silence of European leaders after Thursday's vote in the House of Commons to delay Brexit could also be due to the fact that they realize – whatever their individual opinion on an extension – that they are forced by law to make a unanimous decision. And they will only make that decision if they are all stuck in a room together, which will be the case at a summit of the EU in a week.

At the same time, Nigel Farage, former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), is lobbying countries to ensure that at least one of them veto a postponement of Brexit.

But this rather exaggerates the influence of Mr Farage on European governments. His claim is little more than a publicity stunt.

The final decision of the EU on an extension will be dictated by a personal and political interest.

Delaying Brexit will prolong uncertainty for European businesses and citizens – and ensure that the problem continues to weigh on EU affairs.

But European leaders do not want to be blamed by their constituents for an expensive Brexit without agreement. An extension could avoid that.

So apart from speaking hard, the realpolitik will probably win the day.

It could be a longer-term extension, advocated by European Council President Donald Tusk, to give the UK time to "rethink", he said.

Or a shorter extension, if Ms. May can show next week that she is close to the Parliament approving her agreement.

European leaders will probably say yes to an extension of Brexit, even if it is tight, although they may decide not to make a final decision next week.