British coronavirus variant: what we know and what we don’t know

Speaking at an emergency meeting of the Science and Technology Committee of the British Parliament, Horby explained that the new variant has “some kind of biological advantage to make it spread faster”.

Scientists still don’t have a full idea of ​​why, he said, but that there were a few different scenarios they were investigating.

There is preliminary evidence suggesting that the new strain results in a person having a higher viral load, which means the virus is easier to transmit, Horby said.

Another possibility is that people become infected more quickly after exposure, he said. It is also possible, he added, that people will be contagious for longer.

All of these potential explanations, however, lead to the same conclusion: the virus is spreading faster.

England Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said the variant contained 23 changes, including 17 key “non-synonymous” mutations.

“These [17] are the ones that change the protein sequence of one of the viral genes, ”said Jeffrey Barrett, senior statistical geneticist Covid-19 at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in the UK, according to the Science Media Center.

The World Health Organization said on Tuesday that the mutations “could influence the transmissibility of the virus in humans,” while adding that further laboratory investigations were needed.

NERVTAG scientist Neil Ferguson said on Monday that the variant may be more contagious to children. “There is a clue is that [the variant] … has a greater propensity to infect children, “he told a Science Media Center (SMC) press briefing, warning that more data was needed. Serious diseases due to Covid-19 are still relatively rare in children.

The results have immediate implications for virus control. A larger number of cases could put even greater pressure on hospitals and healthcare workers just as they enter an already particularly difficult winter spell and, ultimately, lead to more deaths.

Where does the variant come from and how did it take root?

The new variant is believed to originate in the south-east of England, according to the WHO. Public Health England (PHE) claims that the backtracking, using genetic evidence, suggests that the variant first appeared in England in September. It then circulated at very low levels until mid-November.

“The increase in cases linked to the new variant first emerged in late November, when PHE was looking to understand why infection rates in Kent [in southeast England] did not decrease despite national restrictions. We then found a cluster related to this variant spreading rapidly in London and Essex, ”PHE said.

But Sharon Peacock, professor of public health and microbiology at the University of Cambridge, said scientists were unsure whether the mutation originated in the south-east of England or if it had been introduced there from elsewhere.

Speaking at a press briefing on Tuesday, Peacock also praised the strength of the UK’s genetic surveillance operation. “If you are going to find [a variant] anywhere, you’re probably going to find it here first, “she says.” And if that happens in places that don’t have sequencing, you won’t find it at all unless you use [other methods.]”

Whitty said on Saturday that the variant was responsible for 60% of new infections in London, which nearly doubled last week alone. Northern Ireland’s Health Minister Robin Swann said on Wednesday the variant had been detected at its borders.

Health authorities in the region have said it is “increasingly likely” that the new variant has established itself across the UK. “I would advise the public to act on the assumption that she is already well established in Northern Ireland and that whoever she is crossing the street or standing next to in a line can have it,” The region’s chief medical officer, Dr Michael McBride, said in a statement.

Some experts have suggested that this new variant may have been amplified due to a super-spread event, meaning the current spike in cases could also have been caused by human behavior.

“When we started to see this huge increase, it could have been a number of things. It could have been [due to] behavior changes, ”Judith Breuer, professor of virology at UCL, said in a briefing Tuesday.

“[But now] it is very clear that there is a significant increase in the prevalence of this variant and that this is probably due to the biological characteristics of the variant and even to increased transmissibility. “

Which countries are affected?

The variant has already spread around the world. Besides the UK, the variant has also been detected in Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands and Australia, according to the WHO.

Australia has identified two cases of the variant in a quarantine area in Sydney and Italy has also identified one patient infected with the variant.

A similar but distinct variant has also been identified in South Africa, where scientists say it is spreading rapidly along the country’s coastal areas.

British health authorities said on Wednesday that two cases of the South African variant had been detected in the UK. Public Health England chief executive Susan Hopkins said the Covid-19 variants found in the UK and South Africa are both ‘more transmissible’.

Is the new variant more deadly?

There is currently no evidence to suggest the new variant is more deadly, according to Whitty and the WHO, although it is too early to tell.

Several experts have noted that in some cases, viral mutations that increase transmissibility are accompanied by lower rates of virulence and mortality.

“As viruses are transmitted, those that allow for increased virological ‘success’ can be selected, which changes the properties of the virus over time. This generally leads to more transmission and less virulence, ”Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told SMC.

Will the developed vaccines work against this variant?

There is no sign yet that the current vaccine leaders will not work against this new variant, experts and drugmakers have said.

The companies behind the first two vaccines to gain approval in the United States – Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna – are testing their vaccines to re-verify their effectiveness against the variant.

The coronavirus has already mutated and both companies say their vaccines have worked against other variants of the virus.

BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin said he has “scientific confidence” that the current Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine could work against the new variant, but full data will be available in two weeks.

Some scientists based in the United States have said that it is possible that this new variant could, to a small extent, harm vaccines.

Trevor Bedford, associate professor in the division of vaccines and infectious diseases at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, said: “You can imagine a modest impact on vaccine effectiveness, which wouldn’t be good, but I don’t think so. that it will break. the vaccine. “

Bedford explained that the variant could potentially reduce the effectiveness of the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine by 95%, which would be a “small effect – not a dramatic effect.”

BioNTech’s Sahin said the new variant, however, could force countries to vaccinate more of the population, raising the bar for achieving herd immunity.

“[On] on the subject of herd immunity, there is still the 60-70% discussion, “he said at a press conference on Tuesday.” But if the virus becomes more effective at infecting people, we might even need a high vaccination rate to ensure normal life continues without interruption. “

What steps are taken to contain the variant?

Large swathes of England, including London and the south-east, are now subject to strict Level 4 Covid-19 restrictions, and UK government health experts have suggested that further restrictions may be needed to push back this variant.

Dozens of countries across Europe, the Middle East and the Americas have also announced travel bans for the UK, or new testing and quarantine requirements for arrivals in the UK.

The White House is considering requiring British travelers to show proof of a negative test before arriving in the United States, two administration officials told CNN.

In the UK, new measures were announced to tackle the potential spread of the South African variant on Wednesday, with travelers arriving in the UK from South Africa now to be quarantined for 15 days upon arrival. arrival. People in the UK who have been in contact with people arriving from South Africa in the past 15 days have also been instructed to immediately self-quarantine.

In its press release on Tuesday, the WHO recalled the basic measures to reduce the transmission of the virus: avoiding close contact with infected people, washing hands frequently and wearing a mask.