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Hello and welcome to our slippery coverage of the global economy, financial markets, the eurozone and businesses.
We are now discovering whether the UK labor market has been damaged by months of uncertainty about Brexit.
Latest unemployment report should show earnings growth, including bonuses, slowed in the last quarter 3.4% per year 3.2%. This would undermine some of the expected recovery in real wage growth and leave households a little less protected from the unregotiated Brexit crisis.
But … the growth in base salary (excluding bonuses) can remain stable at 3.4% – corresponding to the strong reading last month.
Economists also predict that the UK unemployment rate has remained at only 4%, its lowest level in more than 40 years. If this were the case, it would suggest that firms are resisting the layoff, despite the steady decline in their investments in recent quarters.
The British labor market is not a Nirvana, of course, given the worries about zero-hour contracts, the long pressure on public sector wages, and the fact that wages are still below their wage level. before the crisis.
RésolutionFondation
(@ foundation)The end is in sight – on salary, if it is Brexit. Pay packages should now return to their pre-crisis level by 2023 – putting an end to an unprecedented wage slowdown for 16 years pic.twitter.com/chZfthoG1J
But job creation has held up well, as Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:
One of the big surprises has been the resilience of the job market in recent years. Despite all the reports of job losses in retail and banking over the last few months, employers in a number of other sectors have consistently reported difficulties filling positions. vacant. .
Arjun Lakhanpal, MSTA, CFTe
(@ArjunKLakhanpal)It's like being in a quiet day, but unemployment and UK income could keep us awake at 09:30 GMT.
Also coming today
The city is as confused as everyone else about Brexit, after President John Bercow foiled the government's plans to continue holding meaningful votes on Theresa May's deal until MPs capitulated .
Sterling slipped yesterday afternoon when Bercow dropped his bomb, but this morning he is at 1.3265 US dollar.
Adam Cole of Royal Bak of Canada said:
First and foremost, it is now very unlikely that MV3 will happen this week, although next week remains a strong possibility.
Second, since it would leave the Commons the right to vote on the other side of Thursday's EU Council meeting, May will likely have to adopt her "default" position. asking for a long delay until the UK release date in Brussels on Thursday.
In terms of business, Ocado's online products, ASOS online fashion chain and Bonmarché apparel retailer are posting results.
In addition, Parliament's Treasury Committee will question Robert Chote, OBR's budget supervisor, on last week's spring declaration (if members can get away from Brexit).
Treasury Committee
(@CommonsTreasury)This morning, we hold our first session of evidence on # SpringStatement2019.
We will hear Robert Chote, Professor Sir Charlie Bean and Andy King from the @OBR_UK.
? Watch it live at 10am here: https://t.co/ANlSR9ZTvu pic.twitter.com/GD5hx7rQCB
L & # 39; s calendar
- 09:30 GMT: UK data on unemployment and earnings for November-January
- 09:30 GMT: British property market price for January
- 10 am GMT: ZEW index of German economic confidence
- 10:00 GMT: Treasury Committee hearing with OBR Chief Robert Chote
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