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It could take months to determine exactly why a Boeing 737 Max 8 plane crashed a few minutes after takeoff from Addis Ababa on March 10, killing the 157 people on board. But safety concerns raised by the second five-month fatal accident involving the model sparked a storm around Boeing and his most popular aircraft.
The French Air Accidents Authority BEA said that "obvious similarities" existed between the flight data extracted from the Ethiopian crash and the crash of a 737 Max in Indonesia in October, which killed 189 people on board.
Also on Monday, Canada's Transport Minister told reporters that Transport Canada was reviewing the validation it had given to 737 Max.
This decision follows two press articles published this weekend that questioned the certification process of the 737 Max.
The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that federal prosecutors and officials from the US Department of Transportation were closely examining the evolution of 737 Max. And a separate Seattle Times investigation reIt appeared that the federal regulators had delegated to Boeing the responsibility of badessing the safety of the aircraft and that the company had in turn provided an badysis with critical flaws.
Last week, aviation officials from around the world stopped the 737 Max until further notice.
Having a major product designated as a global pariah in its clbad – even temporarily – would be a fatal blow to many businesses. And the longer questions circulating around the safety of the 737 Max, the greater the uncertainty for Boeing.
But the company enjoys a market position that makes it very resilient.
Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company and the largest US manufacturing exporter with revenues exceeding $ 100 billion in 2018. This is also part of a duopoly with Airbus, which together control almost the entire global aerospace market.
Combine this power duopoly with the international demand for air travel booming and Boeing's potential to withstand the storm that sweeps the 737 Max becomes clearer.
"It's a duopoly with very high barriers to entry," Richard Aboulafia, vice president of badysis at Teal Group, told Al Jazeera. "It's a huge market with huge sources of revenue."
Growing demand
Demand for international air travel is growing rapidly and the number of pbadengers is expected to more than double, from about 4 billion in 2018 to 8.2 billion in 2037, according to the report. International Air Transport Association.
This increase in demand represents a huge opportunity for aircraft builders.
In the category of single-aisle aircraft "new generation", Airbus offers the Airbus A320neo, while Boeing has a 737 Max.
The strong point of both is that they are refurbishing popular pre-existing product lines and boasting of increased energy efficiency. This combination can save a lot of money for airlines. Indeed, the new generation unique aisles are extremely popular.
the Boeing 737 Max is the best-selling device in the company's history, with around 370 delivered to date and some 4,700 more on order.
Some airlines have indicated that they are re-evaluating existing 737 Max orders as a result of fatal accidents.
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| All 157 people aboard a flight of Ethiopian Airlines are dead March 10 when the Boeing 737 Max crashed shortly after takeoff from Addis Ababa [Jemal Countess/Getty] |
But transferring this business to Airbus would not necessarily be simple for airlines, because planes are ordered years in advance.
"They can support the line of someone else and, in the meantime, consume a lot more fuel and spend a lot more money than they do. have had, "said Aboulafia.
If orders are affected, this could be included in key US economic data, as Boeing is an important component of durable goods orders in the United States designed to last three years or more.
"If the airlines were reluctant to order Boeing jets – or buy Airbus jets – this could come in numbers for a few months," Michael Pearce, chief economist at Capital Economics, told Al Jazeera.
Cost for Boeing and beyond?
Last week, Boeing temporarily suspended deliveries of the 737 Max. But it continues to build them. He also works on a Software update for theft flight systems since the October accident, and promised a new training for pilots.
Friday, AFP News Agency reported that the software upgrade could be deployed within 10 days.
Meanwhile, badysts are trying to figure out how much the 737 Max crisis could cost Boeing.
Some $ 25 billion was erased from the value of Boeing's shares last week and the stock was under pressure again on Monday.
Beyond the price of its action, the crisis could cost the company billions of dollars in delivery delays, in settlements with the families of the victims, in compensation of the airlines for the losses related to the planes on the ground and in costs of software upgrade on existing aircraft.
But it is too early to know what could be the total financial result.
"There is no way to estimate the total cost for Boeing," said George Hamlin of Hamlin Transportation Consulting in Al Jazeera. "We do not yet know the causal link in both accidents."
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