China expected to post the slowest growth in 28 years in 2018, with more economic stimulus

BEIJING: China is expected to announce on Monday that economic growth slowed to its lowest level in 28 years in 2018, due to weaker domestic demand and US tariffs, putting pressure on Beijing to put more teeth in place. support measures to avoid a more pronounced slowdown.
Growing signs of weakness in China – which has generated nearly a third of global growth over the past decade – are fueling worries about risks to the global economy and weighing on corporate profits ranging from Apple to major automakers .
Chinese policymakers have pledged to further support the economy this year to reduce the risk of mbadive job losses, but they ruled out a "surge" of stimulus measures similar to those that Beijing had unleashed in the US. past, which quickly accelerated growth rates but left a mountain of debt.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the world's second-largest economy to grow 6.4 percent between October and December over the previous year, down from 6.5 percent a year earlier and at the equivalent levels of early 2009 during the global financial crisis.
This could bring gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2018 to 6.6%, its lowest rate since 1990 and its revised level compared to 6.8% in 2017.
While economic stimulus measures are expected to take some time, most badysts believe the situation in China is expected to worsen before improving and that the slowdown to 6.3% is expected to continue this year. Some badysts believe that real growth levels are already much lower than official data suggests.
Even if China and the United States agree on a trade deal in the current negotiations, which is a major challenge, badysts said it would not be a panacea for the Chinese economy that would stutter if Beijing could galvanize weak demand for investment and consumers.
Chen Xingdong, BNP Paribas' chief economist for China, said investors should not expect the latest stimulus package to produce results similar to those of the 2008-09 global crisis, when Beijing's huge spending program quickly spurred growth.
"What China can really do this year is to prevent deflation, a recession and a hard landing of the economy," Chen said.
On a quarterly basis, growth is expected to be 1.5% in October-December, compared to 1.6% in the previous period.
China will release GDP data for the fourth quarter and 2018 on Monday, as well as December industrial output, retail sales and capital investment.
As China's quarterly GDP tends to be unusually stable, most investors prefer to focus on recent trends.
Surprising contractions in December trade data and factory activity gauges in recent weeks suggest that the economy has cooled more rapidly than expected at the end of 2018, leaving it on a more fragile footing at the beginning. of the new year.