China relies on loans to ease the slowdown



[ad_1]

The man next to the treadmill in the Alibaba order processing center.

Copyright of the image
Getty Images

Build things or buy things? China has long believed in the first to cope with the slowdown in its economy. Now he is trying to shift the focus on it.

This year will be an important test to determine to what extent the transition from a state-supported investment to domestic consumption has become the main driver of growth.

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned against a "struggle" as his country faces an unprecedented economic slowdown for nearly 30 years.

The government unveiled a series of stimulus measures not to revive the economy, but to manage the slowdown.

"The goal of China is not growth, but stability," said economist Andy Xie.

"The option for boosted growth again is not on the table, the level of debt is simply too high, not like in 2008."

"Less leeway"

China's debt has doubled as a result of the global financial crisis 10 years ago, reaching about 300% of the size of its economy.

"The level is so high that it's easier to change the economy," said Xie.

Legend

Economist Andy Xie said that China's debt level limited its options

Whether to borrow more to build or to encourage people to buy, he thinks China's ruling Communist Party has much less leeway.

"It's not easy to move the needle when the base is so big," he says.

  • The slowdown in China explained
  • Chinese trade figures should concern us all

So what does he do?

It is to reduce some taxes, to put more money in people 's pockets. This reduces the reserve rate for banks, so that they do not have to keep as much capital in the vault and that they can, in theory, lend more and increase their expenses.

And yes, he is charging considerable sums on major infrastructure projects – railways, bridges and a new big city near Beijing.

"High risk" companies

Only one of these measures is likely to help Wu Yijian.

Mr. Wu is a successful consumer story. He is the co-founder of a technology start-up that manufactures desktop robots, of various sizes, that help Chinese children to play and learn.

Xiao Bai – or Little White – uses voice recognition and artificial intelligence developed by Mr. Wu and his co-founders for 20 years.

While we were in his office in Shanghai, he called his name. He turned toward us and blinked. But private companies like his are not at the center of China's recovery efforts.

He said that sales "rose" in 2018 "but that's not as good as expected".

Venture capital – private money – helped them get where they are.

He says that they will not turn to Chinese state banks – almost all banks here are controlled or controlled by the state – to get help if things get complicated in 2019.

Legend

Wu Yijian depends on venture capital to finance projects such as this robot

"Public banks have very low interest rates, but this type of money is not suitable for a company like ours."

He said that it was because the banks "hated" the risk and that his business was still considered "high risk".

These are mainly large state-controlled companies that benefit from these low interest rate loans. This type of preferential treatment has long been a fundamental principle of the communist government, which regarded private enterprise as a second-rate sector.

"Traditional banks prefer collateral, like real estate, but high-tech companies like us do not own real estate, the most important badets are human resources," said M Wu.

He likes tax cuts. He hopes this will mean more parents will buy more office robots.

President Xi spoke of his "two imperatives" – an unwavering commitment to state-backed and private-sector businesses.

After all, it is the latter that creates by far the largest number of new jobs.

The government has pledged new efforts to increase sales of new cars and household goods. A province here even touted the idea of ​​a longer weekend so that people could shop more.

A good year ahead

Song Junfu is well positioned to deal with everything that 2019 throws at him.

His business is paper. More importantly, the paper for the furniture industry. Mr. Song's company produces advanced paper used to print patterns on synthetic leather. That's why he is based in Haining, a city developed by the government to focus on furniture.

"For our business, I would say, it will not be seriously affected … partly because of the advanced features of our product, [plus] the product is in great demand in China. "

While we were standing in front of a long green four meter high machine in his factory, he said: "We are confident in the market".

It also has the support of the Agricultural Bank of China, one of the four major state banks.

Copyright of the image
Getty Images

Legend

Song Junfu's company has benefited from government support

"Government support can be an badet, for example, to help the development of the company," he said.

"Financially, we can get help and maybe move your project forward a little faster."


International trade

More from the BBC series taking an international perspective on trade:


Mr. Song's company is a private company and it took decades of first study, then development and investment to get there.

It is far removed from the huge, often inefficient, state-owned entities.

But as a manufacturer, it is more likely to benefit from direct stimulus measures than Shanghai's robot manufacturers.

He does not need help though. Even with a trade war with the United States that worries many Chinese manufacturing exporters like him, he thinks he can absorb any impact.

There is a "big and beautiful margin" on the products that they export to the United States, he said, so "even if we earn 5% or 10% less, for we, it's always a good deal. "

[ad_2]
Source link