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If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase until 2080, dengue fever could spread to much of the southeastern United States by 2050.
This is one of the conclusions of a study published in Nature Microbiology on Monday about the possible spread of mosquito-borne disease, which currently kills about 10,000 people a year and sickens 100 million. The study also predicted that the disease would spread to higher altitudes in central Mexico, north of Argentina, inland Australia, to large coastal cities of the United States. eastern China and Japan, southern Africa and the West African Sahel.
The study incorporated data on mosquito behavior, urbanization, and different climate change scenarios to predict how dengue fever would spread in 2020, 2050, and 2080, the New York Times reported. In the most extreme climate scenario, emissions continue to increase. In another scenario, emissions increase until 2080 to stabilize by 2100 and reach their peak in 2040 in the third. In all scenarios, the spread of dengue fever has increased, but it has decreased slightly between 2050 and 2080 in the lowest emissions scenario.
"This suggests that more sustainable emission reductions and socio-economic growth objectives offer hope to limit the future impact of dengue fever," the researchers wrote.
The study was unique in comparison to previous research in that it did not focus solely on the impact of climate change on the spread of dengue fever. He also focused on urbanization. Indeed, dengue fever is a disease that develops and spreads in cities.
"When people hear about a mosquito-borne disease, they think about forest areas, but dengue fever is the disease of the 21st century – it happens in big cities." In big cities, there is a lot people moving very fast, "senior author of the study and badistant professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oliver Brady told The Telegraph.
The study found that an additional 2.25 billion people would be exposed to dengue fever by 2080, or 60 percent of the world's population. But most of this increased risk would be due to population growth in areas where the disease is already endemic and not to an expansion of its geographic extent.
Outside today! – predict the future of dengue in a changing world. In short, to Europe and the United States more limited than expected, already endemic areas will see the greatest population growth in danger as they continue to urbanize rapidly. Https://t.co/v3AZcRdaNY pic.twitter.com/Tn12fUNsI6
– Dr. Oliver Brady (@ OliverBrady1) June 10, 2019
Much of its future expansion will therefore be in places that have the least resources to deal with it, such as sub-Saharan Africa, which is urbanizing rapidly, wrote Brady in a note "Behind the paper "on the article.
"Our hope is that future research on dengue and climate change can be expanded to include mitigation strategies for people living in endemic areas, in addition to evaluating the risk of spread in Western countries, "wrote Brady.
Dengue is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, also carriers of zika and chikungunya. According to the New York Times, it is also called bone fever and its symptoms can include fever, joint pain and internal bleeding.
"For a healthy individual, dengue fever is a terrible experience that you will never forget," Josh Idjadi, Associate Professor at the University of East Connecticut, told the New York Times. , who has caught the disease in French Polynesia. "For infants, the elderly and the infirm, they are the ones at risk."
There is a vaccine, but it does not work for the majority of people.
"Acting now by investing in testing new vaccines and fighting mosquitoes, reducing carbon emissions and planning for sustainable population growth and urbanization are crucial steps in reducing the impact of climate change. virus, "said Simon I, author of the study and researcher in the science of health metrology. Hay recommended to the Telegraph.
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