Climate crisis: the aviation industry hears about electric planes | Business

Facing growing calls for action on the climate crisis, aerospace companies gathered for the Paris Air Show next week are turning to a future focused on electricity rather than fossil fuels.

The magnitude of the challenge is considerable. The goal of zero net carbon emissions by 2050, recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and adopted by the United Kingdom this week, coincides with with the hope that the number of flights will double over the next 20 years.

Aviation accounts for about 2% of total greenhouse gas emissions. But this share is expected to increase with increasing demand in the poorest countries, to match developed countries such as the United Kingdom, where flights accounted for 7% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2017.

The aerospace industry has lagged emissions compared to the automotive industry or power generation, but the improved power-to-weight ratio of batteries means that some forms of sustainable aviation for shorter journeys can finally be considered.

According to a report released this week by badysts at the UBS investment bank, the industry will turn much faster than expected towards hybrid and electric engines for regional travel (less than 1,000 km) They plan an annual demand of about 550 hybrid aircraft, using a mixture of fossil fuels and electricity, between 2028 and 2040. This would create an industry of 178 billion dollars (140 billion pounds sterling) during this period.

The Seattle-based MagniX electric motor manufacturer will attend the show and plan its first test flight in November with a suitable seaplane. Its engines will also equip the nine-seat Alice aircraft currently manufactured by Eviation, an Israeli startup that targets commercial shipments in 2022.

"The only option will be electric propulsion," said Roei Ganzarski, general manager of MagniX. His company will focus on flights of less than 900 miles, which accounted for about 45% of trips in 2018.

For traditional manufacturers, investments in electrical technology are considered essential for long-term survival. The European manufacturer Airbus, which will be very present in Paris and will compete with the American plan builder Boeing, invests hundreds of millions of euros in the electrical technology – although it remains a backlog of nine carbon emitting aircraft.

Glenn Llewellyn, general manager of electrification at Airbus, said the company saw "the reduction of our CO₂ emissions as a necessity ". Those who do not invest a lot could be left behind when carbon regulations become stricter, he added.

"What we are talking about is disruptive," he said. "It's a combination of technological disruption and societal expectations. There is huge progress. This is not enough [yet]this is not enough for our ambitions, but the technology is progressing. "

Airbus builds an electric hybrid aircraft in partnership with the British Rolls-Royce, the German Siemens and Cranfield University. The first flight is scheduled for 2021. However, Llewellyn said the technology would not be viable in large commercial aircraft until at least the 2030s. .

Regulatory pressure is also increasing. The European Aviation Safety Agency, the European regulator, plans to start labeling aircraft based on their carbon emissions, while Sweden and Norway want all short-haul flights to be electrically powered. here 2040.

Manufacturers also see other electric motor attractions. Many companies have embarked on the race to produce the first air taxis for cities, with much quieter electric propulsion systems and the Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) option. Among the companies trying to market air taxis are Vahana, supported by Airbus, the German start-up Lilium and the American company Bell Helicopter, in partnership with the company Uber, which target flight routes.

Meanwhile, Boeing, a fierce Airbus rival, is supporting Zunum Aero, a Seattle-based startup planning to market a small electric hybrid transport aircraft in the early 2020s, and Aurora Flight Sciences, which is also targeting taxis. air.

Yet, for the large commercial aircraft responsible for most of the global emissions, it will take another 20 years to replace carbon-emitting propulsion systems, according to Paul Everitt, managing director of British aerospace group ADS. Aviation emissions will have to decline less slowly than in other sectors of the economy because of the "fundamental reality" of growing demand and the lack of alternatives, has it? he declares.

He said: "As an industry, we accept our responsibility and work towards more sustainable products […] while recognizing that people want to travel. "

Major industry contributions to reducing emissions in the near term will come from improvements such as improvements to existing engine technology and a reduction in aircraft weight, said Everitt.

Environmental advocates argue that the urgency of the climate crisis means that the promising but underdeveloped technologies that will be presented in Paris are less important than short-term measures such as the carbon tax or the production of alternative fuels.

"We have little time to reduce emissions," said Andrew Murphy, head of aviation at Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based campaign group. "Either you do not fly, or you replace fuel with something less carbon-intensive than kerosene."

These alternatives could include advanced biofuels – those that do not contribute to deforestation – and "electrofuels" such as synthetic kerosene, which are produced from carbon dioxide present in the atmosphere using water. energy from renewable sources. Kerosene could then be replaced quite easily by alternative fuel sources, which would reduce the need for a radical adjustment.

"The aviation industry is a conservative industry," Murphy said. "He does not like to change the way he works."