Coal will remain in the US grid until 2050, according to federal energy forecasts

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released Thursday its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2019, which contains projections on energy trends – from the amount of fossil fuels produced and sold, to the growth of renewable energies – until 2050.

This year, in the context of recent warnings from top scientists on the urgency of climate action, the EIA predictions are not optimistic. Coal, one of the most carbon – emitting energy sources, is expected to still provide 17% of US electricity by 2050, baduming that there is no carbon capture technology. carbon has been made mandatory. Natural gas – a fossil fuel that emits less carbon than coal but remains a problem for climate change – will increase its share of US electricity production from 34% to 39%.

These projections come from the EIA "baseline case", which omits any predictions about unplanned policy changes. But they contain badumptions about how technology will evolve and the growth of the economy. According to the very terms of the EIA (PDF), "The Reference Scenario AEO2019 represents the best badessment that the EIA has made of the functioning of the US and global energy markets up to 2050, based on For example, the projection of the baseline scenario badumes an improvement in known energy production, delivery and consumption technologies. "

As such, the projections give us a vision of a world in which we will stick to the status quo in the future.

Needs a grain of salt

The EIA emphasizes that its predictions are neither gospel nor all-encompbading. History rarely follows a straight path, making projections of the future inherently unreliable.

Critics of the EIA Annual Energy Outlook say its baseline scenario (and even the six "scenarios" it describes in its report) favors fossil fuels. (The following six scenarios are: high and low oil prices, high and low gas production and high and low economic growth in the US There are no cases described for development costs or renewable energy storage, for example.)

In addition, a 2016 article in the newspaper Energy found that "the OAS" systematically under-planned most types of non-hydraulic renewable energies. "The EIA attempted to respond to this criticism (PDF) after the publication of this document, but doubt about the EIA methodology on renewable energies persists.For example, this year the EIA does not seem to model the offshore wind in the future, even though several Atlantic states have signed contracts for considerable facilities.

Critics say that overestimating the future of fossil fuels is not an insignificant argument for semantics. these projections are read and used by investors, researchers and utility managers. A methodology that favors fossil fuels can perpetuate more investment in fossil fuels. This could create a world in which our carbon emissions, either never be mastered, or badets blocked by policy changes, create problems for the US economy.

On the wrong path

At the very least, the projection of the EIA Reference Scenario should be a warning that more needs to be done to decarbonize the US energy sector.

The baseline scenario takes into account the existing climate policy (California's 100% clean energy rule by 2045 is taken into account, for example), and as a result, renewables % of US electricity generation at 31%. 2050. But a world in which renewable energies account for only a third of the US electrical mix and where nuclear power goes from 19% to 12% would be well below what is necessary to achieve the goals of the US. Paris agreement. .

In fact, the EIA does not think that carbon emissions from the energy sector will decrease significantly, according to Utility Dive. The industry's scrum held that, unlike in previous years, the OEA 2019 did not include an estimate of carbon emissions from the energy sector to the states. For the baseline scenario at the 2050 horizon.

Instead, an agency official provided Utility Dive with a spreadsheet detailing the estimated carbon emissions for the baseline scenario. The spreadsheet shows that carbon emissions will only drop by 2.5% from 2017 levels by 2050. While carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants are declining, those from natural gas plants are actually rising. over the next 30 years.

Unfortunately, this forecast does not seem crazy, considering what happened in 2018. Despite all the coal decommissioning that took place in 2018, emissions from the energy sector to the states United States rose 1.9% due to the construction of natural gas plants, according to a preliminary study. estimate of the Rhodium group.

The EIA reference scenario is probably a pessimistic view of the future, but it will be well within our grasp if climate warnings are not taken seriously by the energy sector and the energy markets. makers.