Comedian Volodymyr Zelensky may have played the Ukrainian president on television – but could he really lead the country?

Some Ukrainians may think that the April 2019 fish day started a few hours earlier, at 20 o'clock the night before, at the closing of the polls of the first round of presidential and presidential elections. at the exit of the polls showing an actor playing the fictitious president. beating the real president in second place by a margin of almost two against one.

Official results give Volodymyr Zelensky (the actor) about 30% of the vote, against 16% for President Petro Poroshenko. Out of a group of 39 – yes, 39 – presidential candidates, it will be these two who will be in the second round on 21 April.

Yulia Tymoshenko – the only woman among the top 10 and the most recognizable face for many people outside of Ukraine as the "pasionaria" of the 2004 Orange Revolution, was in the lead at the launch of the campaign last December, but was relegated to third place. Fortunately, the margin of 3 percentage points between her and Poroshenko is probably sufficiently clear to prevent any challenge or challenge.

The question that are currently facing more than half of the 35 million Ukrainian voters who voted neither for Zelensky nor for Poroshenko on Sunday is to know which of the two to choose in three weeks – and for the other s & ns We must stick to their initial choice.

It would be fair to say that opinions about Zelensky are very divided. On the one hand, those who argue that everything must be above the icy rhythm of change and the endemic corruption ruled by Poroshenko.

Among them are many young people who have joined what could be called the pan-European anti-political trend that brought the Italian government to power. Zelensky and his team, largely composed of young volunteers, led a hospitable and modern campaign that took off since, like the 2017 campaign of Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, the fans spread the message on the media social.

At the same time, there are many – perhaps overrepresented among highly qualified Ukrainian professionals, here and abroad – who regard Zelensky with worry and mistrust as a mere populist, capitalizing on his fame in another field. Their fear – tinged with condescension – is that it could endanger the relative stability that Poroshenko brought after the turmoil of Euromaidan (a wave of demonstrations) five years ago.

The size of the first ballot of Zelenski, however, and its geographical distribution – he managed to attract Russian speakers in the eastern areas bordering the war zone, as well as in the center and south of Ukraine – have suggested that this was doubtful. the election is now to lose. Poroshenko, however, should not be written off too soon. This is not just the fear of the unknown that could make the second round very tight. Poroshenko could still carry for other reasons.

One is that, although Zelensky gets along well when he presents himself at his own discretion – at the humorous series he prefers to conventional political gatherings – he gives poor results in the few television interviews he gives, appearing out of its depth and using a language suggesting a rather unrebuilded view of the woman.

It was expected that one or more formal televised debates would be put to the test, but the draft debates of the first round failed when both Poroshenko and Zelensky refused to participate, and now it seems that he there will be no second round debate. Now that the competition is reduced to two, it is necessary to concentrate the minds.

Another question concerns the financing of Zelensky. Some suspect that the hand (and money) of the businessman / oligarch exiled, Ihor Kolomoisky, is behind him. Zelensky denies that it does not depend on anyone, and some close to the campaign say that Kolomoisky's badociates are at best on the sidelines of the campaign. But suspicion persists and when Poroshenko spoke of "populists" and "puppets" in his campaign speeches, the conclusion was clear.

Poroshenko's first campaign – a responsible leader whose video highlights the importance of the nation, the military and the Church – may have more resonance now that he will be directly opposed to what might seem like a leap into the unknown with Zelensky. Again, just look at how both teams handled the provisional results of the first round of the evening – Poroshenko looked exhausted and a little tired, and Zelensky bounced back, smiling, with a word of ready for the media and a good dose of joy for his supporters. it was tempting to imagine a new Ukraine already eclipsing the old one.

But to sum up, will Zelensky have the "right" to win? Some election violations were reported on Sunday, but the first round would have been a limpid and open election to the point that a whole stranger could not only claim the country's prime minister's post, but also reach runoff. And external attempts to influence the polls (by Russia and the West), so obvious in previous elections, have hardly been highlighted.

With the presidency itself now at stake and the confusion of a ballot with 39 candidates safe in the past, could the old methods make their comeback? Maybe there would be an upsurge in attempts to influence the campaign from the outside: new money, hacking, cheap beating, "Kompromat"? Is there a "deep state" that could stop Zelensky?

Leaving aside the imponderable, there may be three factors to watch over the three weeks. The first is whether one of the other candidates of the first round having obtained more than a handful of votes will subscribe or make an agreement with one or the other of the candidates. And if they did – if Timoshenko, for example, or Yuriy Boyko, the pro-Russian candidate, supported Zelensky – would that have a positive or negative effect on his campaign? A key candidate could be Anatoliy Hrytsenko, a candidate for the fight against corruption, who finished fifth.

The second is to know how far Zelensky can convince his detractors that he could actually do the job. His team members said he consulted widely and took the perspective very seriously and that he had attracted at least two former ministers on his team. The fluidity of Ukrainian political parties also means that not having one's own developed party may not be a heavy responsibility in Parliament, as MPs may flock to a winner. Legislative elections later in the year could do the rest.

His manifesto is also more specific than his detractors say: it includes the end of the immunity of prosecutors from deputies and government officials; "Not a battle, but the defeat of corruption", referendums on important issues concerning the state, including possible accession to NATO, negotiations with Russia to end the fighting in the country. East of Ukraine, tax breaks granted to entrepreneurs, initiative to introduce technology into schools, etc. pay for the army.

But the biggest question could be this: how far do voters go to distinguish Zelensky's actual candidate from the fictional president-teacher who became president – whose anti-corruption speech secretly recorded on Saturday? propelled to the top?

Using the title of the series Servant of the People As a slogan of his campaign and as the name of his embryonic political party, Zelensky could be accused of fostering confusion. And the fictitious president has an almost naive attitude and agenda that is the subject of many Ukrainians' dreams. He has principles, is interrogative, supports the "little man" and has at heart the well-being of his people. The less the voters are able, or choose, to distinguish between the two, the better are Zelensky's chances of directing the actual Ukraine.

We will tell you what is true. You can form your own view.

AT L & # 39; Independentno one tells us what to write. This is why, in the era of political lies and biases in Brexit, more and more readers are turning to an independent source. Subscribe from just 15 pence a day for additional exclusives, events and eBooks – all without advertising.

Subscribe now