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Hundreds of thousands of Algerians have taken to the streets in recent weeks to demand the resignation of its longtime leader, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. By RYAD KRAMDI (AFP / File)
The resignation of Algerian leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika after huge protests has inspired activists in the region, but it seems unlikely that it will trigger a repeat of the Arab Spring uprisings.
Civil society figures in the authoritarian countries of Egypt and Sudan have welcomed the overthrow of a former president considered unbadailable in dramatic scenes reminiscent of the upheaval of 2011.
Egyptian activists who helped mobilize protesters with their online calls to overthrow autocrat Hosni Mubarak eight years ago shared the bitter lessons they had learned since their own revolution.
"Congratulations to all Algerians and see every Arab country and its people liberated," wrote blogger Abderahman Mansour.
After the ouster of Mubarak, Egypt was ravaged by years of instability that eventually forced the army to eliminate its elected successor, Mohamed Morsi.
Bouteflika has rarely appeared in public since his stroke in 2013. By – (AFP / File) Today, the former army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, is firmly led and accused by human rights groups of running a regime more repressive than under Mubarak.
Gamal Eid, an Egyptian human rights lawyer, warned Algerians to remain on guard after their own army chief played a key role in Bouteflika 's removal from power.
"My Algerian brother, do not leave the place until the army has left politics and the government," he wrote on Twitter.
"Do not be fooled by the military salute."
Faced with the demonstration of the power of the people in Algeria, Sisi warned against the dangers of the demonstration and deplored Sunday the "lack of stability" caused by political clashes.
& # 39; New energy & # 39;
Hamza Meddeb, an independent badyst in Tunisia, said the end of Bouteflika's 20-year regime "reminds regimes like Egypt that nothing can be taken for granted".
"This shows that the Arab Spring remains topical and not a matter of history, because the hope of a change remains".
But he insisted that it was "unlikely" that the events in Algeria would have the same domino effect as the Tunisian uprising that sparked the upheavals of 2011.
"People are taking much more care to prevent their hopes from turning into nightmares."
In Sudan, where demonstrations provoked by economic difficulties have shaken President Omar al-Bashir's three decades of rule, protesters have been encouraged by this success.
"What happened in Algeria will give new energy to the protest movement in Sudan," AFP Omar el-Digeir, leader of the opposition Sudanese opposition party, told AFP. .
"There are similarities between the claims of both movements, although the problem is more complicated in Sudan than in Algeria."
Sudanese protesters announced that they were organizing a rally on April 6 to go to the army headquarters and ask the army to stand alongside the people.
"The Algerian and Sudanese demonstrations are the result of a wave of more modest political and socio-economic protests since 2011, which suggested that the counter-revolution in the Middle East was tantamount to putting a lid on a pot that could spill over into the world. any time, "said James Dorsey, senior researcher at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
"The protests also underline the fragility of Middle Eastern autocrats' hopes that the Chinese model of successfully growing the economy, creating jobs and opportunities, and providing public goods, coupled with Increased policy and the removal of rights, would prove to be a sustainable model in itself.
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The specific dynamics in Algeria – which witnessed a brutal civil war in the 1990s – seem to have prevented the security forces from intervening to stop demonstrations.
"The leaders and protesters of the region are learning from what is happening in Algeria," said Isabelle Werenfels, research fellow at the German Institute of International Affairs and Security.
"But the difference in Algeria is that the security forces, having the memory of the 1900s, were not too willing to act, while other regimes might conclude that these movements must to be repressed by force. "
While more distant countries, from the United States to France via Russia, reacted to the upheaval in Algeria, the countries of North Africa and the Middle East remained silent.
Werenfels said governments in the region remain "extremely suspicious", even Tunisia, the only country to undergo a democratic transition after the Arab Spring.
"We relive our Tunisian revolution through our Algerian friends and see that it is good to return to fundamentals while Tunisia is struggling to move forward," wrote political scientist Selim Kharrat.
Michael Ayari, an expert in geopolitics, said Tunisia considered Algeria as a "bulwark" against a troubled region and that it considered any instability in that country as "frightening".
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