COVID-19 economic downturn likely caused 267,000 more infant deaths in 2020

According to a modeling study published in the online journal, an additional 267,000 infants will likely die in 2020 in low- and middle-income countries due to the economic downturn caused by COVID-19 BMJ Open.

This balance is 7% higher than expected for the year, according to the economists of the World Bank.

The global economy is expected to have contracted by nearly 5% in the first year of the pandemic, increasing the number of people living in poverty by 120 million.

And unlike economic crises in high-income countries, these shocks in low-income countries typically increase the number of deaths among vulnerable groups, such as young children and the elderly.

Previously released projections of the pandemic’s likely impact on indirect deaths – those not caused by COVID-19 itself – have focused on the extent of the supposed disruption to essential health services.

Instead, the authors of this study looked at the impact of the aggregate ‘income shock’ represented by the expected fall in gross domestic product (GDP) – the total value of a country’s annual goods and services – on the survival of people. children over 12 months of age in low- and middle-income countries.

They linked data on GDP per capita to 5.2 million births, reported in Demographic and Health Surveys between 1985 and 2018. Most (82%) of these births took place in low- or low-income countries. lower middle.

They then applied the International Monetary Fund’s economic growth projections for 2019 and 2020 to predict the effect of the 2020 economic slowdown on child mortality in 128 countries.

Their calculations indicated that an additional 267,208 infants in low- and middle-income countries died in 2020, corresponding to an increase of just under 7% in the number of expected infant deaths for that year.

The highest numbers of estimated excess infant deaths were found in South Asia (8 countries), with a total of 113,141, with more than a third of the projected excess in India (99,642). India has the highest number of annual births (24,238,000) as well as a particularly large projected economic deficit of -17.3% for 2020.

The authors note that an additional 28,000-50,000 infant deaths were estimated for Africa after the 2009 financial crisis. This compares to an estimated figure of 82,239 for 2020, reflecting the larger estimated GDP deficits caused by the pandemic.

They accept several limitations to their projected figures, including the fact that their calculations were based on historical data and that they only considered the short-term impact of fluctuations in GDP on infant mortality rates.

And the difference between the economic growth projections for October 2019 and October 2020 has been interpreted as representing only the effects of the pandemic, even though some countries have experienced other major shocks, such as natural disasters or disasters. political crises, which may also have affected national income levels, they explain.

“Regardless of the exact number of projected deaths, the large number of excess infant deaths estimated in our analysis underscores the vulnerability of this age group to negative aggregate income shocks, such as those induced by the COVID-19 pandemic” , they write.

“Several mechanisms are probably at the origin of this increase in mortality among children aged 0 to 1: impoverishment at the household level will lead to a deterioration in nutrition and infant care practices and a reduced ability to access health services, while the economic crisis could also affect the supply and quality of services offered by health systems, ”they explain.

While they have focused on the likely impact on infant survival, other vulnerable groups are likely to have been affected, they add.

“As countries, health systems and the wider global community continue their efforts to prevent and treat COVID-19, we should also consider resources to stabilize health systems and strengthen social safety nets to ‘mitigate the human, social and economic consequences of the pandemic and related lockdown policies,’ they conclude.