Covid-19: Is Northern Ireland winning the battle against the virus?

The coronavirus pandemic has sparked a great deal of interest in statistics and numbers that can be used to try to understand what is going on with the virus.

While the numbers may not reflect the true human cost of the pandemic, they can give us some insight into how we are doing in our battle against Covid-19.

Deaths are counted in different ways by authorities in Northern Ireland.

The Ministry of Health is counting the number of people who have died within 28 days of a positive Covid test. This is published daily on the department’s dashboard.

The Statistics and Research Agency for Northern Ireland (Nisra) is counting the number of death certificates mentioning Covid-19, whether or not that person has been tested for the virus. This is usually posted on Friday morning.

This means that the two numbers will always be different. Both figures are useful in assessing the impact of the virus in Northern Ireland.

But there are other ways to measure the death toll rather than crude numbers.

One is the Department of Health’s seven-day moving average death rate. It is a good indicator of the rise or fall in the death rate.

During the first wave of the pandemic, this moving average peaked at 14 between April 22 and April 24, 2020.

This time around that number has been eclipsed, peaking at 18 between January 10 and 11, but it now appears to be dropping.

The moving average shows trends over time – and it now shows Northern Ireland is going through a longer and more difficult peak compared to the first wave.

Another way to interpret the statistics on the Covid death rate is to look at how many people have died compared to the population. And this is often expressed in deaths per 100,000 people.

Using information from health services,

However, this measure (like most others) has its flaws: it does not take into account societal differences such as a population’s age, health and wealth, all of which can affect the eventual impact. of Covid.

So, let’s look at another way to analyze Covid death rates – by comparing the number of deaths to the number of positive cases, during the pandemic.

This gives us a much easier to visualize rate and it gives us some clues about the outcome for people who have had the virus.

And this is starting to show a clear difference between the island of Ireland and Great Britain.

In Northern Ireland, out of 60 positive cases of Covid, one can be expected to die.

In the Republic of Ireland, the equivalent rate is one death in 65 positive cases.

However, England, Scotland and Wales all have significantly worse rates in comparison. Indeed, the equivalent rate in Scotland is one in 30 positive cases, which is double the rate observed in Northern Ireland.

Another indicator of how we are behaving against the coronavirus is the speed at which the infection is spreading.

The Ministry of Health publishes detailed figures on the infection rate. The BBC’s data unit also collects and analyzes figures from across the UK.

These two sets of data are calculated to give an infection rate per 100,000 population in a week.

The time when

some of the areas in Northern Ireland had some of the worst infection rates in the UK.

But that doesn’t mean Northern Ireland’s infection rate is low. It’s not. It’s just that some places in England have much higher rates.

Figures suggest that the infection rate in Northern Ireland is starting to decline after a poor start to the year.

Recent areas of concern have been in South Armagh and South Down.

According to BBC figures for the week to January 10, the Newry, Morne and Down council area had the highest infection rate in Northern Ireland, with 750 cases per 100,000 population.

Infection rates released by the Department of Health allow analysis by postcode and indicate that areas of southern Armagh have the highest infection rate.

Comparing these rates with the Republic of Ireland is not straightforward. The Republic calculates its infection rates over a different period of time.

That said, all indications are that border areas – both north and south – have high infection rates.

There were more people in hospitals across Northern Ireland suffering from Covid in January than at any time during the pandemic.

And the difference is striking.

At the height of the first wave, 354 people were hospitalized with Covid-19 on April 8, 2020.

That was eclipsed in the New Year – with a peak of 933 inpatients in Northern Ireland hospitals on January 10.

However, ICU beds are not quite under the same pressure as before.

Of the 833 people in Northern Ireland hospital with Covid, 63 are in intensive care.

While this is positive, hospitals are currently operating at an occupancy rate of 97%, and at times that figure has exceeded 100%.

Northern Ireland’s vaccination program has played a major role – not only for the UK, if not Europe, but around the world.

The UK was one of the first nations to start vaccinating and has a good track record to date in terms of the speed at which vaccines are being rolled out.

And Northern Ireland was the fastest of any region in the UK.

So far, more than 110,000 people – nearly 6% of the total population – have been vaccinated.

Almost 20,000 of them received their second dose.

The Republic of Ireland has successfully vaccinated almost 2% of the population – although clearly lower than Northern Ireland, this remains one of the best vaccination rates in Europe.

Read more: What is Northern Ireland’s Covid-19 vaccination plan?