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The testing and contract tracing system for Covid-19 is approaching maximum capacity as virus transmission reaches record levels, the Health Service Executive has warned.
The continued exponential growth of cases will challenge the system and reduce the marginal benefit it provides, officials say.
With widespread transmission of the virus now occurring in the community, the benefit of individuals who take measures to prevent infection “far exceeds” what testing and tracing can achieve, according to HSE CEO Paul Reid.
Mr Reid said there was no point in continuing to build capacity in the system when driveline was so important and the real driver of reduction was individual action.
While demand was still being met, “you reach a point where you [are] beyond certain levels where the tests do not add much ”.
Niamh O’Beirne, national HSE manager for testing and tracing, said the system was on the verge of reaching capacity, which was limited.
Last week, demand for testing increased by 41% in the community, while contact tracing calls increased by 129%.
The average number of contacts of a case has increased to 6.1, but up to 100 cases per day have more than 30 contacts, officials said.
The testing capacity is now 25,000 tests per day, with another 2,000 tests that can be processed overseas.
Mr Reid said most of the health service’s worst concerns before Christmas have now been fulfilled due to “an unprecedented and toxic combination of potential scenarios.”
These include a “massive” increase in daily cases, with positivity rates increasing to levels not seen for a long time; and “extreme levels of number of close contacts”.
Hospitals have seen a “significant increase” in demand over the past 72 hours, he said, and the number of outbreaks in nursing homes has increased.
Describing the situation as “alarming and high-risk,” Mr Reid made an “urgent and serious” appeal to the public to take immediate action to reduce their risk of acquiring Covid-19.
People should withdraw from planned activities and protect themselves, he said, the safest place being at home.
Up to 2,000 calls were made Tuesday to positive cases, the highest daily number on record.
Overall test positivity rates jumped to 10%, reaching 20% on Tuesday.
The average daily number of cases last week was 1,034, three times the level of a fortnight earlier.
The highest incidence of cases is among 19 to 24 year olds, followed by 25 to 34 year olds.
On the deployment of the Covid-19 vaccine, Mr Reid said 40,000 doses had arrived in Ireland and another 40,000 were expected over the next two weeks.
He said there have been no delays in the arrival of supplies so far and that he does not expect any with the next delivery.
The vaccination program will take place in seven hospitals next week and begin in long-term care facilities.
Vaccination in long-term care facilities would be completed in three weeks for the first rabbit and another three weeks for the second, Reid said.
Mr Reid said all EU member states receive the same share of vaccines as Ireland and that no country has “full predictability” when it comes to the timing of deliveries.
Describing the vaccine rollout program as “quite aggressive”, he said it had been launched in health care facilities and long-term care facilities on expert advice.
The deployment program would not be “nine to five” and the vaccinators would be late to vaccinate the staff of these establishments, he promised.
HSE Clinical Director Dr Colm Henry said the pandemic was entering a phase of severe infection, with cases on the rise in all counties and age groups.
The number of hospitalized patients rose sharply to 454, while the number of intensive care patients was up seven in the previous days, to 39.
The reproduction number, a measure of virus transmission, is currently 1.8, Dr Henry said. If maintained, it could lead to 3,000 cases per day by the end of January, he warned.
It was “unthinkable” that the breeding number would be maintained at this level, he said. Even with a reproduction number of 1.4, there could be 1,200 to 1,400 cases per day by the end of January.
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