COVID-19 to become seasonal disease, UM epidemiologist says

A University of Michigan epidemiologist believes COVID-19 will become a seasonal illness, likely in the fall and winter.

Rafael Meza, professor of epidemiology and global public health at the UM School of Public Health, draws a parallel between the reality in the United States, Brazil and other countries in South America, mainly in what concerns vaccination.

Some countries in South America, including Brazil, have seen a downward trend in the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in recent weeks. Despite this data, experts say it’s not time to relax. What should be the pandemic scenario in the region in the coming weeks?

Given the high number of people who have already had a COVID infection and the sheer number of people who have received at least one dose of the vaccine, we hope that cases will continue to decline in the weeks to come. Additionally, the fact that Brazil and the rest of South America are heading into spring and summer gives some optimism that COVID cases could remain low in the region as people can practice. many outdoor activities, limiting indoor contact.

That being said, the looming threat of the Delta variant should give us pause for thought as there is a latent possibility of new outbreaks and breakthrough infections, especially in areas with low levels of vaccination and immunity.

Even with the advance of vaccination, could this downward trend reverse in the coming weeks due to Delta and the easing of restrictions?

It is plausible. The United States, Canada, Mexico and the United Kingdom are examples that even with relatively high vaccination levels, especially in Canada and the United Kingdom, Delta can cause a resurgence of cases when restrictions are lifted. .

I think this is a reality that all countries have to face. But clearly, countries with high levels of immunization and pre-existing immunity due to previous infections do better in terms of hospitalizations and deaths, even as cases are increasing, like Canada and the UK, relative to United States.

With COVID rates dropping and vaccinations on the rise, how important is it to maintain mask warrants?

In the United States, a considerable portion of the population used masks because they were locally mandated (we never had a federal mandate). So, once the warrants were lifted, many of these people immediately stopped wearing masks, regardless of their immunization status. In contrast, others continued to use masks in public places and enclosed indoor spaces. But it could be a small minority in parts of the United States

In Latin America things could be a little different, with a considerable number of people wearing masks because they think they can protect themselves and others. As such, they could continue to wear masks in certain situations.

It is here that leaders and public health organizations could play a vital role in advising the public on the benefits of mask use. They should also explain the situations where they are most useful, for example, when driving a bus or public transport, so that individuals can make the best decisions regardless of the end of mask terms.

Is it possible to draw a parallel between South America and the United States regarding the pandemic?

There are certainly parallels. In most countries, we have seen these waves of cases, hospitalizations and deaths, which are then followed by periods of relative calm. Over time, COVID is expected to turn into a seasonal phenomenon, like the flu. It will likely follow a similar pattern to other respiratory viruses, which cause epidemics mainly in autumn and winter, but have low activity in spring and summer, at least in the northern and southern hemispheres.

Many experts believe that after this fall and winter, and once we are done with the Delta outbreaks, we will be heading towards a seasonal pattern of COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. It is conceivable that a similar pattern could emerge in Brazil and the rest of South America, where cases could remain low over the next spring and summer months, only to rise again in the fall and winter. .

In South America, Brazil currently stands out as the hotbed of COVID-19. Is the country more at risk than its neighbors, even with the discovery of the Mu variant in Colombia?

I think one thing we should all know by now is that we are all connected and anything that happens in one country regarding COVID will likely affect what happens in the rest. Countries with high levels of cases become sources of epidemics in other countries and new variants, which affect everyone.

I think Brazil has had a rough time with COVID in part because of its geographic and geopolitical importance, large population and land area, and complex social and political structure. I also believe that the significant economic and social disparities and the problematic political climate have made Brazil particularly susceptible to COVID. But similar things could be said from other countries in the region. Ultimately, this is a global pandemic and all nations will experience epidemics and multiple waves until we settle into a seasonal pattern or, if we’re so lucky, it goes away.