Davos 2019: The Worldwide Elite Urged to End the Refugee Crisis – Live Updates | Business

Larry Elliott

Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, warned that global growth is slowing worldwide.

"This year, the chances of a recession are about one in three, but next year I see it at 50-50," he tells us on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.

"For 2021, the same risk exists. Growth will be slow enough so that it does not take too much shock to push it into recession. "

Behravesh added that an intensification of the trade war could be the trigger for a global recession, but that the most likely cause would be a policy mistake. Looking at the world 's three largest economies, he said the United States had been temporarily boosted by Donald Trump' s tax cuts. , the eurozone was only slowly developing again and the Chinese authorities were trying to stimulate activity.

"I am worried about China. It is surprising to see how fragile it is. Suddenly, the mastodon begins to look wobbly.

Behravesh said he was expecting an agreement on Brexit because "a tough Brexit would be horrible for both the UK and for the EU. The reaction of British companies facing a tough Brexit is quite strong, but the EU is also beginning to worry despite what it says. "

You can read more about Mohammed Hbadan Mohamud's remarkable journey after two decades in a refugee camp in Davos here.

Here is a flavor:

At the age of 28, Mohammed is the youngest Kakuma zone president, created in 1992 after the arrival of the "lost boys from Sudan". There were around 20,000 children, mostly boys, separated from their families during the conflict, traveling enormous distances to seek refuge.

The physical and mental conditions in the camp are difficult:

We have enough water. And of course, that's not enough, but it's there. Like a faucet. Our houses are made of sheet iron. We also have some services, access to medical facilities and the World Food Program provides rations once a month.

"But what I'm dealing with is mainly psychological. People go crazy sometimes. Often, when outsiders encounter refugees, they only look at physical suffering and physical need. "This person is injured, hungry or homeless," and this is solved by donating food or providing shelter.

"But in 5, 10 or 15 years, needs change. There is no question of hunger now, it is more than that. It's about finding a house. It's a question of identity. And that's what's causing problems. And that's what I treat with me too.

Philipp Hildebrand, vice president of BlackRock (the world's largest fund manager) warned that the market could provoke a "violent" response to a Brexit without a transaction.

He told Bloomberg TV in Davos:

If we are realistic, we must say that it is unlikely that the agreement will pbad in its present form.

So there is not one side Brexit likely to take various forms – the most modest would be a delay at the start – or a difficult Brexit. A hard Brexit would be a dramatic event that, in my opinion, is underestimated by the market.

When we look at this issue, we have to say that there is no more Brexit or Brexit that needs to be addressed, because if that happens, you can rest badured that the market would react violently, maybe at the last minute.

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One of the co-chairs of this year's annual meeting is Mohammed Hbadan Mohamud, a 28-year-old refugee.

Mohammed spent the last 20 years confined to Kakuma camp in Kenya. It does not have a pbadport, no official birth date and has never been anywhere else but under the semi-arid climate of sub-Saharan Africa – until this week, when the WEF brought it to Davos.

He is a powerful speaker who asks delegates to give up their distrust of refugees and their help.

Mohammed says:

I do not know what you're afraid of. Refugees are real people.

He explains that there are 185,000 refugees from 10 different nationalities. He is awake at night and fears that his brothers and sisters can never leave the camp.

We are like the others. We have aspirations, dreams and needs.

It surprises me that money and capital move in seconds, but it takes decades of refugee – or in the case of my mother, she never went out. Waiting for 25 years for a change to call somewhere at home.

Refugee camps are not ethical – put people in distant places and pretend that they do not exist

Not ethical, not sustainable, and not conducive to human growth.

Visitors to Davos may be worried about climate change, but many still choose to arrive by private jet.

The Air Charter Service industry group estimates that there could be up to 1,500 private jet flights during the week if delegates go to the WEF.

Andy Christie, director of private jets at ACS, explains:

Davos does not have a clean aerodrome and, although we have several customers arriving by helicopter in the city, the four main airfields used by private jet users participating in the forum are Zürich, Dübendorf, St. Gallen-Altenrhein and St. -Moritz.

"By working with WingX, we have examined the activity of private jets at these airports over the six days of each WEF week since 2013 – from the day before the event to the next day. Last year has been the busiest private jet so far, posting an 11% increase over 2017, with more than 1,300 aircraft movements. If we see a similar increase this year, we could consider about 1,500 aircraft movements in the six days.

Some delegates will then further undermine the fight against climate change by taking a private limousine from the airport to Davos, avoiding the option of a bus or train (which are d & # 39; 39, impressive reliability).

Roland Rudd is in Davos and talked about Brexit. The veteran public relations official said the UK would "feel the pinch" very soon if the UK left the EU without agreement and the rest of the world was "surprised that we have this conversation".

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An early mystery of Davos …..

Davos Man and Woman discuss the impact of strategic changes on their business.

And after the greed and greed that led to the financial crisis, it's refreshing to hear a bank manager say in favor of financial regulation:

Ruth Porat, chief financial officer at Google, says companies need to gain the trust of users. You only do it if you act correctly.

Larry Elliott

We have just met Christy Hoffman, General Secretary of UNI Global Union, which represents 20 million service workers – from cleaners to Hollywood filmmakers – in 150 countries.

She said her message to the leaders gathered in Davos was the need for a new social contract to revive collective bargaining, manage the change induced by new technologies and spread the benefits of growth more broadly.

"Workers believe that globalization is for the elite, that Davos is for the elite. Where does this leave our global institutions and trade? If we want a global economy, it can only be for business. "

Hoffman was shocked by Oxfam's report that 26 billionaires had the same wealth as half of the world's population.

In Davos, there has been much talk of the need to combat growing inequality, but not much action.

Hoffman says:

"There is no sense of sacrifice. There must be a transfer of wealth from one set of pockets to another. "

Fears of global growth seem to be weighing on investors' minds this morning, as European markets are declining early in trading after declines in Asia.

The International Monetary Fund Monday canceled its global growth forecast, warning that a more pronounced slowdown in China and a Brexit without a transaction would be the main risks in 2019.

Here are the scores obtained up to here across Europe:

• FTSE 100: -0.2% to 6.959
• Gemany's DAX: -0.5% to 11,080
• CAC France: -0.4% to 4,846
• FTSE MIB of Italy: -0.5% to 19,542
• Spanish IBEX: -0.5% to 9.011
• STOXX 600 in Europe: -0.4% to 355

Adair Turner, president of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, spoke to Bloomberg of Davos about the impact of the economic downturn in China:

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Unfortunately, this year, Davos misses many of the world's leading leaders.

Donald Trump retired earlier this month to focus on closing the US government.

Same as Theresa May, to talk about the Brexit discussions.

Emmanuel Macron also stays at home to focus on the anger of the protests against the yellow vest.

And on Sunday, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa gave up his plans for increased investment, while public unrest develops at home.

We will always have Bolsonaro, the Japanese Shinzo Abe and the German Angela Merkel.

But as one Davos insider said, world leaders facing the biggest crises are at home.

Good morning from Davos, where the first day of the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum is being held.

It's a bit sweet this morning this morning as top politicians, business leaders, advisers, "rising young global leaders" and activists begin this annual meeting of the so-called global elite.

Delegates should always receive a stern warning from Sir David Attenborough. Last night, the 92-year-old radio broadcast legend (the oldest and perhaps the most beloved participant) said that human beings must urgently use their problem-solving skills to cope to the climate crisis, before the disaster.

The official title of this year's event is "Globalization 4.0: Forging a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution".

WEF hopes to make progress in the fight against inequalities by helping the losers of the last decades of globalization (but we still do not know what it is to enjoy champagne at exclusive evenings in a Swiss ski resort).

After months of turmoil in the markets, tensions in the trade war and signs of a slowdown in China, the business leaders who visited Davos this week are certainly nervous. PwC's annual health check revealed a worrying increase in pessimism last night.

The global economy will be the focus today, with sessions on financial risk and a satellite appearance by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Attenborough will also participate in a few sessions – one with Prince William, who will also be promoting mental health issues this week.

But the big event could be a speech by the new populist president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro. It will offer investors in Davos its right-wing policy on the free market.

Here's an overview of what's on the agenda:

• 8:45 GMT / 9:45 am Davos time: Are we ready for the next financial shock? Axel Weber, president of USB, Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater and Jin Keyu of the London School of Economics will speak on this vital topic
• 9am GMT / 10am Davos time: Gita Gopinath, IMF chief economist, and economist Adam Tooze discuss how to rethink globalization
• 12.30 GMT / 1.30 pm Davos: Press Conference: The humanitarian crises that will shape 2019
• 13:15 GMT / 14:15 Davos: Interview with Sir David Attenborough and HRH The Duke of Cambridge
• 14h30 GMT / 15h30 Davos: Speech by Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil
• 15h GMT / 16h Davos: Special Session with Michael Pompeo, Secretary of State of the United States
• 16h GMT / 17h Davos: Sir David Attenborough, former US Vice President Al Gore and New Zealand Premier Jacinda Ardern will discuss how to save our planet (the title of the new Attenborough Netflix series)