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By Dele Sobowale
“Let an intolerable situation last too long; and suddenly there are no more good options ”- Arthur Burns, 1904-1987.
Arthur Burns was the tenth chairman of the US Federal Reserve, the equivalent of our governor of the Central Bank, under the leadership of President Richard Nixon. He was named at a time when the US economy was going through a recession after years of expansion.
Hard decisions, destined to be unpopular, were called for. The late economist made the remarks as he took office. But, Burns’ statement can be applied to several non-economic situations. Some of us have known or heard of the person the doctors advised to have their toe amputated; and who categorically refused. Then she was asked to have her foot amputated as her condition worsened. Ultimately, it was a choice between having his leg removed or death.
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Difficult but self-induced choice.
Nigeria faces one of the most difficult choices we have ever faced with some state governors instructing their citizens to “stand up for themselves”. At the very least, it is an invitation to anarchy. This judgment is not mine alone. In fact, it was passed to me by the Supreme Court Justice of the United States, Louis Brandeis, 1856-1941, who in 1928 remarked that when government becomes blatantly ineffective and unfair, “it breeds the contempt of the law; he invites each one to become a law for himself; it invites anarchy. Nigeria’s federal government is now seen, even by those who should be its natural allies and supporters, as ineffective and unfair.
Until recently, Governors Darius of Taraba and Ortom of Benue were lone voices in the wilderness when they called on their people to “defend themselves.” The last three – Governor Masari of Katsina State, Matawelle of Zamfara and El-Rufai of Kaduna – were reportedly the last to join this campaign. Now they are running it. Their three states already form the Nigerian equivalent of the Bermuda Triangle; anyone who enters it risks being kidnapped, killed or captured for ransom. Katsina, if anyone needs to remind you, is the president’s own state.
Reinforcing the drift into chaos are the implications of the call, shared by other governors nationwide – a complete loss of confidence. None of them believe that Buhari’s government can protect them any longer. And, since they have no way of securing people’s lives and property, they have left the task to the people themselves. More and more, the president becomes a leader without followers. When it comes to security, most Nigerians now look down on it. It wasn’t what people expected when they elected a tough-talking ex-general in 2019. This disappointment has other consequences.
YOU CANNOT MAKE HOME MONSIEUR – WITHOUT A BATTALION
“As you make your bed, you will lie in it” – Old adage.
Mr. Udoh God bless my all time favorite teacher repeated this and other adage in our heads at St Peter’s School Fourth Primary, Ajele, Lagos Island – with interpretations. I can never forget it. Your bed is often at your permanent home. All the rest – hotel rooms, official quarters, barracks, Aso Rock – are temporary residences. A day will come when you will have the front door slammed in your face. President Buhari is gradually approaching that day when he will need permission to enter Aso Rock. He’ll probably head for Daura. Although he didn’t ask me, I will still offer him free advice. Despite his monumental mistakes, I wish him the best after life inside the Rock.
This is not the first time, however, that I have worried about a president who is approaching the end of his temporary stay in the Rock. In April 2015, after former President Jonathan accepted his defeat, he told reporters his intention to return home to Otuoke, Bayelsa. I was curious about where our outgoing leader was going. I went there and wrote an article called “Jonathan’s Long Trip to Otuoke”. I was able to go to Otuoke because, despite a certain level of insecurity, it was always safe to go.
Unless things drastically change for the better, only someone determined to kill themselves will go to Daura – Buhari’s permanent home. But, there is an emergency plan that allows me to know the situation in Daura. My ten years of living and working in various parts of the North have allowed me to build a network of friends everywhere. From those of Funtua, Dutsin Ma, Katsina and Jibiya, I have a good idea of the situation in Daura.
When Buhari left in May 2015 to resume his role as president, Katsina state was one of the most peaceful in Nigeria. The fences around the properties in the GRA were low; and a Maigadi was enough to secure the larger mansion. No one has ever heard the word BANDIT. Today the bandits share power with the governor who recently ordered the people to “defend themselves”. The highest fence, with barbed wire, no longer deters bandits. This is the situation in Daura where Buhari will rest, or try to rest his head in peace after his departure from the Rock.
My advice to him is: Your Excellency, please don’t go; unless the National Assembly votes on a bill authorizing the deployment of a battalion to guard you. Otherwise, for the benefit of all, please stay in Abuja. Daura, under your watch as president, has become one of the most dangerous places on the planet. And, those wicked son of wagons, called bandits, can only regard your kidnapping as just another good meal ticket. Ask Governor Masari if you don’t believe me. It is the bed made by incompetence, procrastination during necessary changes and poor execution. Millions of people in Katsina will suffer for decades because their son was President of Nigeria for eight years. The rest of us too.
THE HEALING COULD BE WORSE THAN THE ILLNESS
“A weapon is defensive or offensive depending on which end is directed at you” – Prime Minister Aristide Briande, 1862-1932, VBQ p 271.
Whenever I’m in a group discussing insecurity in Nigeria, someone has to finally remind us all that some governors have called on Nigerians to stand up for themselves. I smile because no prescription for a serious illness can at the same time be more deadly if it is improperly applied. Bandits will be killed, but innocent people will also be murdered. When the bandits are not recognizable, until they strike, it is safer to strike first and ask questions later. And, as the dead do not speak, each corpse becomes that of a terrorist – even an innocent who has entered the community. Even a neighbor, with whom we quarrel, can be murdered in the night; and the murderer would point in the morning to a “bandit” whom he had ambushed and eliminated. Who will investigate?
The main terrorist group that the rest of us must defend against are the ubiquitous shepherds. They are visible everywhere, day and night. If all other Nigerians take the order to defend themselves at face value, then any shepherd seen anywhere where grazing has been prohibited should be considered a target for self-defense. The shepherds, usually armed, will also act in self-defense, but soon there will be few living shepherds. A fellow announced a solution during a discussion. “If you cannot get the shepherd, then annihilate the flock.” Again, this is a recipe for genocide on an unprecedented scale in this country. Even during the Civil War, 1967-1970, as many innocent people were not slaughtered as we will know once self-defense is accepted as a solution. This is a calamity that Buhari should not pray for – as the lifetime patron of the Miyetti Allah Cattlemen’s Association of Nigeria. His insistence on reviving imaginary pasture routes is already provoking this kind of reaction. It will amount to a civil war within a civil war if it breaks out …
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