Despite the "car-less" hype, the millennial generation is doing a lot

The Millennials, so famous for killing human beings, were on the verge of ending the US auto addiction. We were supposed to hand over our driver's licenses, prefer Lyfts to car loans and settle in cities rather than suburbs, using public transit and bike paths instead of the traditional private car. We were supposed to make greener choices than our older, energy-hungry parents.

But research based on years of data rather than stories of trends and anecdotes paint a different picture of how Generation Avocado Toast chooses to move from its predecessors.

A working paper published by the National Bureau of Economics this week offers an empirical examination of millennial car ownership and driving practices against the backdrop of previous generations. Taking into account factors such as marriage and city life, it reveals that Americans born between 1980 and 1984 are just as likely to own a car compared to, for example, their parent's cohort. In addition, when driving habits are measured by the number of kilometers traveled by vehicle, some millennials are really the worst.

Authors Christopher Knittel, Professor of Applied Economics and Director of MIT's Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, and Elizabeth Murphy, now a project manager at Genser Energy and a former MIT graduate badistant, looked at data from five US editions. Department of Transportation's National Household Transportation Survey, as well as the corresponding demographic data from the Census Bureau and the American Community Survey.

Together, these sources have captured transportation patterns, geography, generations, and lifestyles that could affect a person's transportation choices, such as marriage and children. (All confounding variables included in the badysis are presented below.)

They then categorized even data series at the level of individuals and households by generation, the keys being Baby Boomers (defined as years of birth 1946-1964), Generation X (1965-1979) and Millennials (1980-1984) ; in order to compare the same stages of life from one generation to the next). With the help of a regression badysis technique, they tested the number of vehicles per household that each generation tended to purchase, and the number of vehicle-miles traveled during the survey. a given year. All of these life-stage, preferential and circumstantial variables have been controlled – again, whether the Millennials actually differ from other generations in their relationship with cars.

Their discoveries? If you do not consider these external or internal factors, the popular wisdom is true: the millennial generation has about 0.4 vehicle less per household than the average baby boom of the same stage of life, say the authors. On the sole basis of generational identity, young people seem less interested in the automobile.

But the story changes once they have started to overlay other factors. With all 13 confounded variables controlled, the "millennial preference" for a reduced number of cars essentially disappears. Life choices and geography are the most important factors: the millennial generation is more likely to live in urban areas, less likely to marry before the age of 35 and has a family slightly more numerous compared to previous generations – choices that produce a slight reduction in the study shows that the number of vehicles per household is less than 1%.

Using the same tests to see how VMT per generation is multiplying, the authors find a similar pattern: an uncontrolled comparison suggests that Millennials travel less than their predecessors of the same age. But when factors such as education level, marital status, number of children and whether or not they are settled in the city, Snake People accumulates a little more VMT that the baby boomers did.

In summary, if the relationship between young Americans and personal cars has changed, this study suggests that it is trivial.

Like all studies – particularly unpublished studies like this one – there are limits and caveats. Young people of the millennial generation (those born after 1984) could still be at the origin of the promised car-free revolution. This cohort is not included here because it is not yet old enough to be compared correctly with other generations. In addition, this badysis focuses on the United States; it says nothing about how transportation choices in other countries with different socio-economic stratifications and generational expectations may have changed. And this is just one study: the number of economists who wonder if the Millennials actually prefer cities to the suburbs could probably fill a ballroom.

But the orderly story of how the millennial generation hated cars has never been watertight. As the economy firmed in the years following the recession, the story's first holes appeared. As young people became older and more financially secure, they were attracted, like so many Americans before them, to the driver's seat. With low gas prices and a still rising suburb, the economic arguments in favor of driving have remained stubbornly strong in most places in the United States. It seemed that the transition from this generation to the next phase of consumer life had simply been delayed, not canceled, thanks to economic forces.

No generation is a block: geography and incomes also play a major role in driving the millennial generation compared to others. According to another badysis of the most recent National Household Travel Survey conducted by the State Smart Transportation Initiative, the high-income Millennium Generation less miles per year as their low-income counterparts – probably because of their ability to live in cities where prices are higher, where they are closer to work and where alternative modes are available.

Overall, the Millennials seem to quickly catch up with their elders in terms of driving, which is inconvenient for policymakers trying to reduce the increasing emissions of vehicles in the face of climate change. So it is probably time to stop waiting for young Americans to give up the private automobile in mbad, Even when no-dock scooters, bikes and other transport gear connected to a smartphone invade the streets. Surveys suggest that this generation is more environmentally conscious than its predecessors and indicates a preference for eco-friendly products. However, according to the authors of the NBER newspaper, the millennial generation "suffers many of the same constraints as previous generations". How are you from A to B. As long as these factors do not change, it will be difficult for this generation or any other generation to kill the car.