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This was the first battle of the war between Donald Trump and the new Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. The stakes were the fate of immigration reform, border security and government spending during the Trump presidency, as well as the political weight exerted by both the Republican people and the Democratic people. And there was no doubt about who won and who lost.
Friday afternoon, in the Rose Garden, Mr. Trump waived his request for $ 5.7 billion for the reopening of a border wall, approving a three-week interim measure that would immediately end the closure without any additional funding for border security.
Retirement could have workout effects far beyond the mere controversy on a border wall, setting a pattern for future confrontations, from the executive's privilege to health care, to the future. immigration and infrastructure. Trump used all the tactics he knows: a last-minute threat of veto, aggressive tweets, prime-time speeches at the Oval Office, a visit to the border, exit from high-stakes bargaining, and not working.
Trump described his rise in the trap of victory: a speech on the radio by the Rose Garden on the national radio, a tough speech on border security, employees applauding vigorously at the end.
"We have reached an agreement to end the closure and reopen the federal government," said Trump. "After 36 days of lively debate and dialogue, I have seen enough Democrats and Republicans and they said they were ready to put partisanship aside – I think – and to give priority to the security of the American people. "
Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer were careful not to taunt the president after his speech, but instead described their remarks as a victory for federal workers. "It's sad … it took so long to come to an obvious conclusion," Pelosi said. But it was clear to Republicans and Democrats that in Trump's first major confrontation against the Democrats, the president had lost all the measures he set himself.
Before closing, Trump had announced that he would be proud of it; he ended up accusing the Democrats. He argued that the the public was on his side; polls showed that a majority of Americans opposed the wall and the closure. He has embraced a struggle for the state of the Union; Pelosi won the debate. He maintained that Republicans remained attached; half a dozen GOP senators defected in a vote on Thursday. He repeated promised not to give in to the financing of the wall; in the end, he did that.
Apart from the carefully managed appearance of Rose Garden, even his followers have witnessed the reality.
"Trump is the Babe Ruth of our time: he does not practice and makes big bold leaps," said Republican Donor Dan Eberhart. "Sometimes, he gets spectacular runs. The closure of the government over the wall of the border is a strike that will end the game for his team. "
Democrats, needless to say, agree.
"It's pretty close to an unconditional surrender," said a Democratic House aide.
President Trump returns to the Oval Office after his remarks on the January 25, 2019 closure.
David Butow – Redux for TIME
The agreement includes a plan for the House and Senate to go to a conference to discuss security measures at the border. Trump said a "bipartisan conference committee bringing together lawmakers and House and Senate leaders" will "put together a set of homeland security measures that will allow me to sign the law soon." He spent the bulk of his ad talking about the danger at the border, the need for a wall and saying that he found bipartisan support for one.
But he also offered the threat of invoking controversial emergency powers to build the wall, which he had repeatedly mentioned during the closure. "If we do not get a fair deal from Congress, the government will be closed again on February 15 or I will use the powers given me by the laws and the US Constitution to remedy this situation." Emergency, "he said.
In addition to the general public, the fight has also affected Trump's base and signature issues.
According to a poll by Fox News from January 20 to 22, more voters were concerned about closure than border security: 75 percent said closure was an emergency or a major problem, while 59 percent said the same thing about the situation at the Conference. border. The same poll found that Trump's approval reached record levels with key elements of its base, or almost. The Fox News poll found that Trump's approval dropped by 10 points for Republican women (83%) and suburban men (43%) and 7 points for Evangelical white Christians (71%) . ).
He was even injured at the border security level, the very problem that triggered the closure: a Quinnipiac survey conducted from January 9 to 13 revealed that, by a margin of 49 to 44%, US voters are more confident to the Democrats in Congress than to President Trump. on border security.
The closure hurt voters in Trump, cracking her base just at the start of the 2020 presidential campaign, but it also weakened her negotiating position as he tackled another two-year battle with Pelosi. The chairs of democratic committees in the House have already described an aggressive approach to investigate the president, whether it's his old business or how his administration has granted security clearances. In addition, Trump may be beset by demands for documents, subpoenas, hearings and possibly even an indictment. procedure, he leaves this situation with much less weight. And he revealed the divisions of his own party, both between him and the Republican congressional leaders and with the GOP caucus.
Read more: House Democrats Prepare to fight Trump. And the other
On the other hand, as much as Trump was handicapped by this fight, Pelosi was reinforced. Before returning to the President's jersey, she had to face internal dissension within her caucus from people who felt she should not return to this position because the time was ripe for a new direction. Her allies, however, argued that she possessed the right mix of experience and judgment and that the results of this confrontation largely proved them right.
Trump never had the full blessing of Republican leadership in the Senate to proceed with this ruling. For the most part, they seemed largely baffled by what the president was trying to accomplish with. After unanimously adopting a temporary spending bill in the Senate that would have prevented the closure last December, Senate Majority President Mitch McConnell has, however, ruled out role, stating that the burden lay with the Democrats and whites. House to reach an agreement.
The breakthrough took place on Thursday, day 34 of the closure, after the Senate rejected two procedural steps that would have paved the way for the end of the closure. But the move motivated by the president has attracted less support than that proposed by Democrats, who, like what Trump announced Friday, has temporarily reopened the government without any funding. As a result of these votes, McConnell summoned Schumer to his office, where, according to a Senegalese democracy adviser, he proposed a short-term financing bill in exchange for a down payment on the wall. Schumer said the Democrats would not support any funding from the wall and presented a plan broadly aligned with the one announced by the president on Friday. McConnell said that he would take the proposal to the White House.
"The only way for federal government employees to enjoy security and certainty beyond the next three weeks," McConnell said after Trump's announcement: "Democrats will stop playing partisan games and begin to negotiate seriously with the president on a long-term compromise. "
Even though it was clear that something was going on before the announcement of Trump, McConnell and Schumer remained mothers, only telling reporters that they were "talking". But Democrats in the House have postponed a press conference, which was originally scheduled for Friday morning, to unveil their own plans for border security spending.
Since December, Trump has been insisting on a government funding package of more than $ 5 billion for a border wall. Democrats have refused to exceed $ 1 billion and have insisted that the government be reopened before fighting for border security funding. The Democrats have largely won their wish. Friday's proposal was really what they had been asking for from the beginning: reopen the government and discuss border security later.
The main team of the president who deals with this issue hopes that the end of the closure will only be the beginning of the fight against the US immigration system. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and Trump's senior advisor, told reporters on Jan. 19 that "this could be a step towards broader immigration reform."
"Many disagree, but I really think that by working with Democrats and Republicans, we can reach a really great and safe deal for everyone," Trump said Friday. "The walls should not be controversial."
But after Friday's concession, the Democrats may no longer have any motivation to play.
Write to Alana Abramson at [email protected] and Tessa Berenson at [email protected].
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