Ecological study identifies potential association between antimicrobial resistance and climate change

A new study presented at the 29th European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ECCMID) held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands (13-16 April 2019), identified a new badociation between antibiotic resistance and climate change. The study was conducted at the Institute for Infection Control and Infectious Diseases of the University Medical Center Göttingen (UMG), Germany, in collaboration with Hannover Medical School (MHH), Germany. The main author is Professor Simone Scheithauer of UMG.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a threat for the whole of Europe, with the burden reaching its peak mainly around the Mediterranean basin. [1]. The badociation of antimicrobial resistance to climate has recently attracted more and more attention, as resistance increases with rising local temperatures in the United States [2].

This new research sought to determine whether the explanatory force of climate variables was valid in a region with diverse health care systems and societies and whether a climate change dimension could be identified, using Europe as a region studied.

The researchers conducted an observational study of 30 countries across Europe (see below list of countries). The six-year prevalence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CRPA), carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP), multidrug-resistant Escherichia coli (MREC), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was determined from published data. by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) [3].

Statistical badysis and computer modeling were performed to identify badociations between antimicrobial resistance and seasonal temperature [4], including socio-economic and health system confounders. The team found significant badociations of CRKP, MREC, and MRSA with mean warm-season temperature, which contributed more to the variance of MRSA than the use of outpatient antimicrobial drugs.

In addition, CRPA was significantly badociated with temperature change during the hot season. The authors also used their models to estimate AMR in four other countries, not included in the database used (Belarus, Serbia, Switzerland and Turkey). The results showed varying degrees of accuracy compared to the empirical data. [5], with relatively good comparisons for CRPA in all countries except Belarus.

The authors conclude: "Our study has identified a new badociation between AMR and climatic factors in Europe.These results reveal two aspects: climatic factors contribute significantly to the prediction of AMR in different types of systems and societies. health care, while climate change could increase the transmission of AMR, especially carbapenem resistance. "

They add, "Although these results remain hypothetical, because there is no causal link, a future badysis of AMR and climate change is needed to determine whether the potential effects of climate change on AMR are becoming more important. important. "

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