Economic forecasts bear a blow to Theresa May's agreement on Brexit | Policy

Theresa May's campaign to sell her Brexit deal to skeptical MPs and a divided country faces new challenges when a series of official economic forecasts conclude that the UK would be better off staying in the UK. European Union.

The Bank of England said on Wednesday that GDP would have been at least 1% higher in five years if the UK had voted in favor of maintaining it, while an official badysis of Whitehall concluded that in all scenarios concerning Brexit, including the final agreement of May, the UK be worse.

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, added that in the worst case scenario, an unlikely "no-deal" at Brexit, that the economy would shrink by 8%, that house prices would fall by 30% and interest rates would rise. inflation.

"Our job is not hoping for the best, but to prepare for the worst," Carney said, describing what could happen if MPs voted against the May deal, the 11 December, and that the government and parliament can not agree on an alternative until next March. .

The official warnings will lead Jo Johnson, a Conservative MP who wants a second referendum, to warn Thursday that the Conservatives' economic credibility was now at stake – while the Brexiters accused the Bank and the Treasury of engaging in "fear of the project". ".

"The Conservative Party's reputation for economic competence would be undermined by the establishment of a botched Brexit, particularly one that, according to the government's own badysis, is going to cause economic harm," he said. -he declares.

Labor reacted by tabling their own Brexit amendment rejecting Wednesday's May deal. Jeremy Corbyn said: "Unions will oppose Theresa May's botched Brexit", adding that her contract "endangers jobs, rights and people's livelihoods".

The proposed amendment indicated that the party opposed Brexit of May because it had failed to establish a permanent customs union and a strong agreement on the single market. This "would therefore lead to increased barriers to trade in goods and services, would not protect workers' rights and environmental standards," the text adds.

Meanwhile, May insisted during a combative session of the Prime Minister's questions that the country would be "better off with this deal" because the economy would still be growing, and accused Corbyn to have his own plan for Brexit.

"What does the job have to offer? Six bullet points. My weekend shopping list is longer than that, "May told MPs.

May and her key ministers intend to highlight the benefits of her Brexit deal over the next two days, choosing a different theme every day.

The idea is to try to persuade skeptical members and the British public to support the December 11 vote in May. Chief Conservative bad Julian Smith confirmed Wednesday night that six alternative amendments had been considered and five days later. of debate.

In its model, the Bank of England warned that even under the May agreement, described as a close economic partnership with Brussels, the UK economy would be at least 1% lower by 2024 than it would have been subject to a sustaining vote in May 2016.

Carney denied his alarmist remarks and said the Bank provided an badysis requested by Parliament. "We have to do it," he said, noting that the Bank's task was to make the required forecasts.

Carney supported the Prime Minister's plan regarding Brexit when he said the May deal could result in a GDP increase of up to 1.75% over the next five years. But he added that the economy was nevertheless in a worse situation than it would have been had there been a remaining vote in 2016.

But officials also warned that there were risks and that, if customs controls on trade between the UK and the EU were introduced – although the border is not tough in Ireland North, the economy would shrink by about 0.75% over the same period.

Angry Brexiters – many of whom are among the 94 Conservative MPs who said they would vote against his final deal – are gearing up to attack the Bank, Treasury and other departments.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, president of the Brexit European Research Group, accused Carney of not understanding the meaning of the book and not understanding its role. "He is not there to create panic," he said.

A few hours earlier, a Whitehall badysis, produced for the benefit of MEPs in the run-up to the vote, concluded that the UK would be much worse off with five possible Brexit scenarios within 15 years, including the model. Norwegian considered privileged by some. the cabinet, and Canada's free trade model favored by the tough Brexiters.

Officials did not produce a scenario that exactly matched the May agreement, but the two closest models suggested that the economy would be 3.9% to 2.1% smaller in 2035-2036.

Philip Hammond, Chancellor, conceded that the UK would be in a worse situation after Brexit, stating: "If you are considering this from a purely economic point of view, it will cost a risk of leaving the UK. European Union, because there will be obstacles to our job. "

In the worst case scenario, GDP would be 10.7% lower than if the UK had remained in the EU in 15 years. According to an agreement similar to that of Canada, backed by Boris Johnson and David Davis, the UK would be 6.7% worse off than staying in the EU, the study concluded.

But in a Norwegian scenario based on the EEA and favored by some conservative conservatives, the GDP would be 1.4% lower in 15 years, which is higher than the forecasts of the May agreement, even if, in this model, the free movement of Europeans should continue.

Officials were forced to compare the economic merits of the Brexit scenarios for keeping in the EU after the government was forced to accept an amendment from Labor MP Chuka Umunna and the Conservative MP. Anna Soubry during debates on the finance law last week.

"Ministers have been forced today to publish an badysis comparing different scenarios to our current arrangements. The data is clear: nothing beats the agreement we have as members of the EU, "said Umunna.