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As the transfer window from January enters its last week before closing at 10am on Friday, February 1st (AEDT), the clubs begin to struggle and sweat during new recruits.
Will they arrive before the deadline? Here is the probability that 10 of the largest EPL transactions will take place this month …
Gonzalo Higuain in Chelsea
It is surely a question of when, rather than if. Higuain wants to go, Chelsea wants it, Maurizio Sarri wants it, AC Milan is ready to cancel his loan and Juventus has accepted the terms of the new loan.
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He is unlikely to join the semi-finals of the first leg of the Blues Carabao Cup semi-final against Tottenham in time, but unless he is a full half-turn of one of the parties involved, he should be a player. of Chelsea by the end of January.
Probability of occurrence: 9/10
Alvaro Morata at Atletico Madrid
Expect this to occur a few hours after Higuain's transfer is complete, although this is less certain, as Chelsea may want to keep it until the end of the season. where.
Morata has failed since leaving Real Madrid and said he wants to return to his Atletico childhood club while the two sides were close to an agreement for a $ 88.2 million deal. This is the last domino to fall, AC Milan wishing first a replacement for Higuain before letting him go, which would trigger the move of Morata.
Probability of occurrence: 8/10
Aaron Ramsey at Juventus
Well, it's a 10/10 certainty for the end of the season, with Ramsey having apparently already signed a pre-contract deal with the giants of Serie A, but he could make the move six months earlier .
Until now, the Welsh was an accomplished professional. Unai Emery is waiting for it to help until the end of the season. However, as for Chelsea, if Arsenal recruited his own recruits, they could allow him to leave in January.
Emery bids farewell to Ramsey
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They now want a maximum of US $ 50 million for Ramsey's services, but if they secure one of their other two goals (later), the Gunners would force their oldest player to serve for the longest time. for a reduced price of $ 18 million.
Likelihood this will happen (in January): 7/10
Denis Suarez at Arsenal
It was probably this deal that broke the deadlock over the relationship between Sven Mislintat and Arsenal, the hiring manager who left the club in February. Instead, they asked Raul Sanllehi, head of football, to use his contacts with Barcelona to try to get Suarez.
The signing of Barcelona by Kevin-Prince Boating and the imminent move of Ajax member Frenkie de Jong means that they will be more than covered for the departure of Suarez, if any.
This agreement was likely to be concluded on the basis of an initial loan, with a view to a permanent move, but reports have now been published suggesting that talks on the player's long-term future would have caused a break total of the talks. For the moment, anyway.
Probability of occurrence: 7/10
James Rodriguez at Arsenal
The playmaker on loan from Real Madrid Bayern Munich has become a forgotten man at the Allianz Arena during the second season of his two-year contract. He has had a good first year in Germany but has since fallen out of favor – so much so that Bayern is willing to reduce his credit, as he does not intend to make the move permanent at the end of the year. the season.
James' preferred option is to stay and fight for Real Madrid, but with the movements for Eden Hazard and Christian Eriksen mentioned for the European summer, the writing seems to be on the wall for the Colombian.
Arsenal, however, hopes to take full advantage of the situation and resume the loan contract that James is currently stationed at Bayern Munich, like what Chelsea is trying to do with Gonzalo Higuain.
Probability of occurring: 3/10
Tottenham sign Malcom
Get some déjà vu? That's because 12 months ago, Malcom was at the top of the Spurs racing list. However, nothing came of it and just as he was about to reach Rome (supporters were waiting for him at the airport), he fled to become a Barcelona player.
This decision did not take place exactly as he would have hoped. The Spurs are looking to sign him again after Harry Kane has been injured and the continued commitment of Dele Alli and Son Heung-min in the Asian Cup leaves them no further attacks. .
The 21-year-old would have been made available by Barca, although it is a six-month loan for a permanent contract at the end of the season.
Probability of occurring: 3/10
Michy Batshuayi at Everton / Monaco
Another transfer difficult to settle, the striker Chelsea is currently on loan in Valencia. Everton would apparently like it, but since they have already lent Kurt Zouma from the Stamford Bridge, they could only sign the Belgian permanently. Monaco, on the other hand, wants it for a first loan.
Valencia has said it has an agreement with Monaco and that the player wants to join the former Belgian badistant Thierry Henry in the Principality. Chelsea, however, wants money from a permanent agreement.
So, Batshuayi will go somewhere, but it's about as clear as mud about where.
Probability of moving to Everton: 5/10
Probability of Monaco: 6/10
Callum Hudson-Odoi at Bayern Munich
You can deduce the effect Jadon Sancho. The former Manchester City starlet joined Borussia Dortmund last year and is flourishing. From now on, Callum Hudson-Odoi wants to follow him in order to get the first-team football he is denied at Chelsea.
Bayern's pursuit against him has been fairly public, which Chelsea has condemned, but with Hudson-Odoi clear, he will not sign a new contract with a delay of 18 months for his current contract. Chelsea's options are relatively limited.
They offered him a new exceptional contract, which he rejected, to force him to stay or start playing it regularly in the hope that he would choose to stay. In any case, the position of the player is clear. He wants to leave.
Probability of occurrence: 8/10
Marko Arnautovic at the Chinese Super League
Arnautovic made it clear that he wanted to leave West Ham, even going so far as to say goodbye to his fans during his replacement during his last home game against Arsenal.
But the Hammers are good and do not want to lose one of their best players at the end of January, for lack of time to replace him. They have already done this with Dimitri Payet and do not wish to do it again. They are ready to let him go at the end of the season, however.
But with the Chinese transfer window still open in February, Arnautovic could really force their hand. Expect this one to hang around again and again.
Probability of occurrence: 8/10
Newcastle to sign anyone
Rafa Benitez has his goals, but unfortunately for him and the fans of Newcastle United, he has no one who wants to read the list.
Mike Ashley wants to sell the club and therefore refuses to reinvest more money in the club.
The transfers have been a huge frustration for Benitez since his arrival in Newcastle, with a record signing of $ 29 million, Michael Owen in 2005.
Probability of signing anyone: 1/10
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