Erdoğan "The invincible" faces tough elections – POLITICO

ISTANBUL – President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may not be on the ballot at the mayoral elections in Turkey this weekend, but he has been leading one of his fiercest campaigns in years, a recession provoking discontent widespread.

The stake is the control of some 80 municipalities. These are the two largest cities in the country, where Erdoğan's conservative movement has dominated for a quarter of a century but now faces serious challenges posed by surprisingly homogeneous opposition.

Erdoğan is firmly rooted in an all-powerful presidency after his victory re-election last year, however, he considered mayoral and municipal council elections as a referendum on his style of authoritarian rule.

he Sunday's vote was considered an existential test for his country. He told the Turks that only his strong leadership could protect them from the chaos that reigns nearby.

"Events in our region show that this is not a simple election for local administrators. This election has become a matter of survival for our country, "he said at a campaign rally last month.

A defeat in one of Turkey's two biggest cities may not help much in loosening control over the country, but would reveal bumps in the political juggernaut Erdoğan built after 16 years at the helm.

But fears of national security are a concern for the economy. The Turkish to read is collapsed last year, rocking the economy into recession. Inflation has climbed to 20% and millions of people are unemployed.

Erdoğan attributes the country's ills to the interference of foreign powers, but he is firmly in charge of the economy, which is part of his broader consolidation of power after facing a political failure. coup of military state in 2016.

The recession has become the main problem of elections. In survey, 65% of respondents indicated that the economic downturn was their biggest concern and more than half said it would affect their vote.

Erdoğan is still Turkey's most popular politician, bringing together 1.6 million people at a rally in Istanbul last weekend. Opinion polls show that his tireless campaign may not lead his party for justice and development (AKP) in cities such as the Turkish capital Ankara, the industrial center of Bursa or the southern city of Adana.

In Ankara, the opposition candidate is ahead by 2 percentage points. The AKP also loses its support in Istanbul, where the ruling party is ahead by less than a point, according to a survey last week. Other researchers have stated that the races are too close to be followed.

A defeat in one of Turkey's two biggest cities may not help much in loosening control over the country, but would reveal bumps in the political juggernaut Erdoğan built after 16 years at the helm.

"Istanbul and Ankara together sum up Erdoğan's incredible political rise to power," said Soner Cağaptay, director of research in Turkey at the Near East Policy Research Institute in Washington. and author of the Erdoğan biography.

"Losing one or the other would be a symbolic blow to his image as an invincible leader who never loses a political battle."

Shot in the arm for opposition

In Istanbul, the opposition is jointly supporting the mayoral candidate of the Republican People's Party (CHP), Ekrem Imamooglu.

He joked that his rival, Binali Yıldırım, a former prime minister, was not the AKP's candidate, but Erdoğan himself, whose image is splashed on election campaign posters all over the city. .

For İmamoğlu, seizing an Erdoğan stronghold would show that the AKP can be defeated, a blow to the opposition's arm that lasted a long time in the last Turkish elections scheduled before 2023.

But he rejected Erdoğan's claims that the fate of the country was at stake in the municipal vote. "It's an election on local issues, it's not a question of Turkey's survival," said 49-year-old POLITICO.

The Turkish opposition parties, often divided among themselves, formed a tactical alliance to woo leftist, nationalist and Kurdish votes, as well as disaffected supporters of the AKP.

İmamoğlu, currently mayor of a suburb of Istanbul, hopes that his religious education will appeal to pious voters who have long felt sulked by the most secular secularist CHP in the world.

"Conservative voters in Istanbul see me," he said. "My experience allows me to build bridges when Turkey is deeply polarized."

He also has a daring trend: on Friday, he attended prayers in a mosque in Istanbul recently inaugurated by Erdoğan who, if the Loyalists had their way, could one day wear the name of the president.

Istanbul, the hometown of Erdoğan, has a special resonance for the Turkish president. He was catapulted to the national scene in 1994 when he was elected mayor of the city, winning praise for the extension of social services, depollution and public transportation.

Since arriving in Ankara to become prime minister in 2003, then president in 2014, he has continued to leave his mark on the city, transforming an 8,000-year-old skyline with new bridges, skyscrapers and mosques.

But losing Istanbul would be more than just a symbolism. The city's megaprojects are part of a system of political patronage in which municipalities award contracts and jobs to friendly businesses.

"Istanbul's major development projects are part of a rent-generating machine, [defeat] would mean the loss of significant funds that would go to pro-AKP companies, "said Cağaptay.

With so much at stake, Erdogan is doing everything possible.

"Win at any cost" campaign includes distribution of government-subsidized grants groceries in the big cities to appease voters worried about soaring food prices and a proposal, intended for nationalist and conservative voters, to convert Istanbul's Hagia Sophia into a mosque its current status as a museum.

He ignored the protests of New Zealand and showed the shooter's images shooting in the Christchurch Mosque at nearly a dozen field stops, revealing to the crowds that Turkey was also under attack.

And even if opposition candidates win it, Erdoğan may not let it go. He threatened to to reject 300 city councilors with alleged links to Kurdish militants, and declared that he "can not stand" the victory of the leader of Ankara, Mansur Yavaş, who was slapped forgery charges this month. (Yavaş denies the allegations.)

But even members of his conservative base believe that Erdoğan has failed to allay their worries as they struggled to feed themselves.

Bahar, a 29-year-old housewife with her hair folded under a headscarf, is among those who heard İmamoğlu say a few thousand supporters last week in the Usküdar district of Istanbul, on the Asian side. Istanbul. She plans to vote for the CHP for the first time.

"It's a 180-degree turn for me," said Bahar, who declined to give his last name. "But I'm not afraid of change. When I can not afford to go to the market, what is left to be feared? "