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The green, blue and red flags of the Sidama people float above government buildings in a city in southern Ethiopia, where leaders are about to declare a separatist region.
The Sidama announced plans to unilaterally declare their own federal state this week. Analysts say this could ignite the political crisis in Ethiopia and cause bloodshed.
In Hawbada, the potential capital of the proposed state, bikers sounded the death knell on Monday as young men ran around the streets waving flags and singing songs in anticipation of the announcement.
The much-feared confrontation touches on the issue of autonomy – the foundation of a federal system designed to ensure widespread ethnic autonomy in an extremely diverse country.
At present, Ethiopia is divided into nine semi-autonomous regions. The constitution requires the government to hold a referendum for any ethnic group wishing to form a new entity.
The Sidama have been agitating for years to leave the various southern regions, nationalities and peoples of the South of which they are part and create their own state.
The dream took a new impetus after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power last year, promising sweeping reforms.
But his government hesitated to respond to the referendum request. Under the constitution, the vote must take place within one year – the deadline expires on Thursday.
"If the government does not come back Thursday with a decision on this, we will enforce the law by addressing the authorities of the zone," said AFP Dukale Lamiso, president of the movement's president. opposition Sidama Liberation.
Abiy told lawmakers earlier this month that a unilateral statement could force the central government to intervene.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) warned that the federal government had "no good option".
Preventing the formation of a state could trigger the violence, but its acceptance could trigger unrest among minorities in the region, the think tank said.
The dissociated candidacy has already provoked violence between the Sidama and Wolayta ethnic groups in June 2018.
"Everyone stands for the cause"
Some Sidama activists are becoming more and more provocative as the deadline approaches.
"Nowadays, everyone is championing this cause and does not think anyone can play with us," said Tessema Elias, a law professor at Hawbada University.
If the security forces prevent the creation of the new state, the population is ready to respond, he added.
"If anyone illegally attacks you, you can by any means repel this illegal, unconstitutional attack."
The question of Sidama is the last headache that Abiy is facing.
He took office in April 2018 after years of anti-government protests and was quickly commended for the release of political prisoners and the lifting of the ban on political parties.
But the easing of the EPRDF's iron fist regime, to power, has sparked grievances in a country of more than 80 ethnic groups, sparking violence between communities that have displaced more than two million people .
Last month, Abiy faced his biggest challenge when gunmen badbadinated five government and military officials, including the army chief, as part of a coup attempt. State in the state of Amhara.
"Previous unwelcome"
"The Sidama movement is determined to declare itself on July 18. The authorities will probably reject this as being unconstitutional, but this could well lead to demonstrations that could trigger acts of violence," said William Davison, an badyst at # 39; ICG.
"Yet adhering to the voluntary declaration would be tantamount to giving in to pressure from activists and thus would be an unwanted precedent that other Southern groups seeking regions could exploit."
A statement issued Monday night by the South Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement, a member of the ruling central coalition, did not clarify what the government intended to do before Thursday.
The Sidama are the largest group in the region, and many minorities fear that a new state will affect their access to government resources and jobs.
The area known as the Sidama Zone extends over 10,000 square kilometers (about 3,800 square kilometers) – about the same size as Lebanon – although the boundaries of the alleged state are not clear.
In 2007, at the time of the last census carried out in this country in strong growth, the zone counted close to three million inhabitants on 100 million.
Solomon Mengistu, a member of the Amhara group born and raised in Hawbada, said he had no personal objection to the Sidama forming their own state.
But he insisted that activists should try to avoid alienating ethnic minorities.
"They should also ask people like us how we feel about this situation and pay attention to our feelings," he said.
Until now, however, Sidama activists seem reluctant to listen to different points of view.
Even Sidama businessmen who have expressed concern over what the campaign for a new region could mean for Hawbada's economy have been condemned in publications on Facebook and other social media .
Tessema Elias, a law professor, rejected non-Sidama's complaints that the pressure was divisive and said the creation of a new region was inevitable.
"It's not something the government determines, and it's not something that political parties determine," he said.
"It's about people's determination, and we trust our people."
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