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Euro (EUR) Discussion points:
- EURUSD below 1.1300 and this time it may be there for a while.
- The German Ministry of Finance reduces the GDP of 2019 from 1.0% to only 0.5%.
The DailyFX Q2 EUR Provide is available for download, including our short and medium term look at the euro.
Basic forecasts for EUR: bear
The single currency is seemingly unfamiliar with a host of other currencies and is expected to fall, pushing my downside outlook down, despite the current low levels. The fundamentals seem not only negative, but the EURUSD chart looks weak in the short to medium term and the support obtained is minimal.
This week's Eurozone data impressions were relatively neutral, but remain at modest levels with no encouraging signs in the publications. The German manufacturing industry remains at a low for several years, the economic engine of the EZ is still affected by the scandal of diesel emissions, slowing growth in China, increased commercial fears between the United States and the United States. EU and Brexit. This week, the German Finance Ministry confirmed rumors that the country's growth in 2019 would be only 0.5%, down from the warm forecast of 1% and significantly lower than the 2.1% expected there is one year old. The economic climate remains weak and Germany must now find a way to boost growth through public investment and increased public consumption to offset export losses. It is highly unlikely that the ECB will further ease monetary policy, as even lower – and more negative – interest rates will plague German savers and increase the euro area banking sector.
There could be worse coming. If US President Trump continues to consider new tariffs on euro area exports, the EU will retaliate, leaving it in a dead end, while an uncompromising Brexit – very unlikely – would leave the unit the risk of new taxes and tariffs. In 2017, the UK exported goods worth £ 274 billion to the EU, while reverse trade led the EU to export for 341 billion pounds. billion pounds to the UK, a difference of 67 billion pounds that would be threatened. .
The economic calendar next week is rather mild, with only German IFO statements Tuesday and retail sales at the end of the week. Wednesday's ECB Economic Bulletin will probably be the highlight of the week and should provide a more detailed badysis of economic and monetary developments in the single zone.
DailyFX Economic Calendar
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EURUSD currently trading around 1.1250 and is approaching the old horizontal support at 1.1216. A break below shows 1.1176 the lowest recent in the last 22 months. The lowest lows continue to dominate the chart and the pair is trading below the three moving averages.
Looking for a technical point of view on the EUR dollar? Check Weekly technical forecasts in euros.
EURUSD Daily Price Table – 18 April 2019
Sense of the client IG the data shows that 59.7% of traders are net EURUSD. We usually have a contrarian vision of the crowd, and the fact that the traders are net-long suggests that EURUSD prices could fall again.
Merchants can be interested in two of our commercial guides, especially during periods of volatility – Traits of successful traders and Top trading course – while technical badysts are likely to to be interested in our last Elliott Wave Guide.
— Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst
To contact Nick, write to him at [email protected]
Follow Nick on Twitter @ nickcawley1
Other weekly basic forecasts:
Australian forecast: the Australian dollar faces a big problem as official CPI figures loom
Crude Oil Outlook: Crude oil prices stagnate ahead of earnings and GDP data for the US energy sector
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