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Experts have called for caution in easing lockdown restrictions, warning that easing too soon could lead to a further rise in cases and threaten the NHS with collapse.
Steven Riley, a member of the Spi-M modeling group that advises the government, said that despite the successful deployment of the vaccine, scientists were “really worried” about the prospect of another wave.
“If we allow a really big wave of infection, this wave will find all the people who couldn’t get vaccinated for a good reason, those people who got the vaccine but unfortunately didn’t give them the protection they needed. they need ”. he told BBC Radio 4’s Today program.
“Almost 20% of the UK population is over 65 or over. If you make a single back of the envelope [calculations] for a vaccine that is very good but not perfect, there is potential for another really substantial wave.
When asked if this wave could be as big as the one the UK is currently emerging from, Riley said: “I don’t think anyone expects us to suddenly lift all social restrictions … but if for some reason we choose to just pretend it’s no longer there at some point, then yes, there is the potential to revert to a wave of a similar size to what we are currently in.
It comes as reports circulate of a government ‘three-state plan’ to reopen the economy, which could see pubs, hotels and restaurants in England reopen by Easter weekend, according to the newspaper. I.
Citing a senior government official, the newspaper reported that Boris Johnson would allow non-essential stores to reopen at the end of March if prices remained low, following the scheduled reopening of schools on March 8.
It was also reported that pubs would be allowed to serve outdoors in April if coronavirus infection rates continued to decline. However, scientists advising the government continue to urge caution, arguing that the number of cases remains too high to allow for a significant relaxation of controls.
Lord Adebowale, a cross-peer and chairman of the NHS confederation which represents organizations providing care across the UK, warned the health service was ‘on its knees’ and measures should only be relaxed when the NHS was convinced he could cope.
“Almost a third of all patients who have required hospital treatment for Covid since the start of the pandemic were admitted last month,” he said. “[We’ve] has had 4.5 million people waiting for elective surgery, 10 million people have additional mental health issues and we have a workforce on its knees, so we have to be very careful, really systematic, to lighten up any lockdown, ”warning that we“ can’t afford ”another rush.
Adebowale also said that while the vaccine rollout was “mission critical,” “hit [rollout] goals is not a return to normal ”.
“Until everyone is protected, no one is protected, and there [are] some real issues about who is not getting vaccines at the moment. But there is also no evidence that any of the current Covid vaccines can completely prevent a person from being infected, and this has implications for achieving what is called herd immunity.
But Tory MP David Davis said the government should take a ‘suck and see’ approach to relaxing controls, and the UK would eventually have to come to terms with life with a number of coronavirus deaths each year, as with the influenza.
“What I don’t want to see is more stop-start – relax it and then go back, relax and back,” he told the Today program. “We’re unlikely to get full freedom until April / May or maybe even a little later, but we have to start soon.”
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