Fate of meerkats linked to the seasonal effects of climate

Meerkats are cooperative breeders who live in social groups. A dominant female monopolizes the bulk of reproduction, while subordinate helpers help her raise offspring. Changes in the physical and social environment affect the growth, survival and reproduction of meerkats. For example, wet and warm conditions in early summer increase growth, survival and reproduction of animals. On the other hand, high population densities and cold weather in winter reduce individual growth and survival.

Seasonal dynamics after

The Kalahari Desert in southern Africa is expected to become drier and warmer as a result of climate change. The new study examines how steady increases in summer temperatures and fluctuations in precipitation will affect body mbad and growth of meerkats, resulting in lower reproduction and survival rates for offspring. However, this is not the only conclusion of the study.

"In addition to the current practice of modeling the average annual dynamics, we have looked at seasonal dynamics and have developed a specific climate change model," said Maria Paniw of the Department of Evolutionary Biology and Studies of Climate Change. the environment of the University of Zurich. "We found that the situation is more complex: seasonality is important because the improvement of the conditions of a season can partially offset the deterioration of the situation the following season."

Warmer winters can mitigate negative effects

The team correlated observed changes in growth, survival and reproduction with changes in precipitation and seasonal temperatures. Using these links in a population projection model, scientists projected population dynamics in 50 years, creating different scenarios based on a report on climate change published by the National Center for Atmospheric Research ( NCAR) of the United States.

The data show that the combined effects of warmer and drier summers in particular may threaten the persistence of the meerkats population. According to the projections of the study, fewer offspring were produced, which resulted in a decrease in the number of aids in the population. In this scenario, the meerkats population has dropped, increasing the risk of population collapse.

In contrast, the negative effects of decreased precipitation in summer would be mitigated to some extent if winters warmed, allowing meerkats to gain weight and improve breeding. Taking these seasonal compensating changes into account leads to a different scenario, in which the probability of extinction is less severe and the meerkats would still persist in 50 years.

Link between seasonality and population dynamics

"The effect of environmental change on a population depends on how individuals interact with their biological and physical environment and how these interactions will evolve over time." Our study shows that we need to identify these interactions, particularly with regard to how these interactions Arpat Ozgul, lead author of the study and professor of population ecology in the Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies at the University of Zurich explains Arpat Ozgul.

Professor Tim Clutton-Brock, co-author of the University of Cambridge and founder of the Kalahari Meerkat project, adds: "Our work underscores the importance of long-term and individual studies extending over many years. decades, is it possible to badess the effects of climate change on animal populations and to understand the ecological mechanisms responsible for them? "

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