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"The clbadic risks of financial imbalances and badet bubbles could reappear, and the growing financialization of the US economy and the increased transmission of financial shocks on a global scale (…) could present new risks, "wrote Hatzius. "But the risk of financial imbalances seems to be hanging at the moment, partly because of the cautiousness caused by the crisis on the part of households, businesses and regulators."
"More importantly," he added, "the private sector is still in a very good financial position and seems much less vulnerable to lower badet prices or tightening lending standards than in the past. last two cycles ".
Investors, however, seem more worried about exogenous shocks: the explosion of the trade stalemate between the United States and China, coupled with disordered geopolitical events such as Brexit and the weakening corporate profits, which suggests a reduction in taxes in 2017
Goldman, however, has come through the last century of the recession and found that they mostly fell into the above-mentioned causes.
Sending to each of them individually, economists have found that industrial imbalances and stock shocks are less common now that companies have been more successful in calibrating their inventories. oil shocks are less dangerous now that the United States has become more energy independent; fiscal tightening has generally occurred only around "major liberalization events" that have not occurred since the end of the Korean War, and the financial risk, although the cause of the Great Recession, does not prevail more today with guarantees integrated into the banking system.
Hatzius notes that forecasts are becoming increasingly worrying, with economists' forecasts suggesting a 25% chance of decline and market risks of around 50%.
"While new risks may emerge, none of the main sources of recent recessions (…) seems too worrying at the moment," he said. "As a result, the prospects of a soft landing seem better than we thought widely."
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