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Despite the slowdown in the economy, the budget will barely be in surplus in 2018-2019 and will record a surplus of $ 9.8 billion in 2019-2020, according to Deloitte Access Economics.
In its latest budget report, released Monday, Deloitte suggests that the budget improves due to the sharp rise in corporate tax revenues, even as property prices plummet and the low wage growth weighed on consumer spending.
Deloitte estimates that the budget will be improved by $ 3.1 billion in 2018-2019 and $ 5.7 billion in 2019-2020, compared to the official December mid-year update.
The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, seized the Deloitte report, warning that wage growth would be lower than the Coalition estimates and saying the government had "no excuse" to increase the $ 21 billion debt since that Scott Morrison became leader.
Deloitte estimates revenues will exceed official forecasts of $ 2.9 billion in 2018-19 and $ 3.7 billion in 2019-2020 due to increased tax revenues of $ 2.3 billion and $ 5.2 billion. Coal and iron prices have risen as a result of China's economic recovery and the tragedy of the dam in Brazil.
Deloitte says revenues are "booming" because "the only elements of the economy that continue to grow rapidly are the main drivers of revenue."
"But it also means that incomes are vulnerable to any further signs of weakness," he said.
Deloitte anticipates that short-term positive results will soon be exhausted, with nominal GDP $ 4 billion lower than official estimates in 2020-21 and $ 11 billion – or 0.5 per cent – by 2021- 2022.
"In particular, the wage woes are starting to hurt: the gap between the forecast of wages of the treasury and [Deloitte’s] … is gradually growing over time, "he said.
The Treasury predicted that wage growth will reach 2.5% by June, then 3.5% by June 2021, while Deloitte expects much slower growth of around 3% by 2021.
Nevertheless, surpluses are expected to reach $ 15 billion in 2020-21 and $ 20.6 billion in 2021-2022, with low unemployment fueling economies in terms of social protection.
Deloitte said that despite the 2018 tax cut, the range will shift to $ 3.7 billion in 2019-20 and $ 9.9 billion in 2021-2022. For the first time since 1999, the income tax will reach 20 cents.
"This suggests that we have not heard of the latest tax cuts before the next elections," he said.
In the mid-December economic and fiscal outlook, the government set aside $ 9.2 billion for decisions made but not yet announced, fueling speculation that it would further reduce income taxes or ahead the existing discount train.
In September, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told The Guardian Australia the benefits of the government's three-step plan, which would see 10 million taxpayers pay less taxes, without ruling out further cuts to income taxes. .
Economic management and the return to surplus in 2019-20 are at the heart of the Morrison government's re-election speech, as is the badertion that the Labor Party would impose a $ 200 billion tax increase.
Unions called the poll "a referendum on wages," promising to spur wage growth while restoring the budget by closing tax loopholes on negative conversion, capital gains tax and elimination of refunds. tax credit for excessive postage credits.
Bowen accused the Liberals of mismanaged economy "which suffers from per capita negative growth, low wage growth and sluggish growth in productivity ".
He said the government "irresponsibly violated another temporary rise in commodity prices."
Bowen pointed out that Deloitte was "particularly critical of unrealistic expectations of Liberal salaries" in the update.
"The Labor Party is the only party to put in place a plan to reduce the record debt of the Liberals and create the fiscal buffers we need, to the extent that the economic situation permits."
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