Five cheers for 2021

Notice of Friday, December 25, 2020

Journalist: Mark Leonard

2020-12-25

Lots of chickens have come home to roost this year. The COVID-19 pandemic was not a random lightning strike that came out of the blue, but rather a man-made “natural” disaster, mirroring so many of our dangerous – even deadly – bad habits and practices.

After all, the transmission of the coronavirus from bats to humans was the product of mass urbanization and destructive encroachment on natural habitats, and its rapid spread was the result of overindustrialization, a frenetic commerce and contemporary travel habits.

Likewise, the inability of the world to come together to contain the crisis reflects the extent to which the capacity for governance lags behind hyper-globalization.

Many of these failures were evident before the virus hit, with people in many countries embracing nationalist and populist leaders who pledged decisive action in a world that seemed out of control. But while this has been a tough year, there are at least five reasons to be happy for 2021.

The first and most obvious reason is the defeat of US President Donald Trump. It’s a relief to be able to wake up in the morning without worrying about what the most powerful person in the world said on Twitter while you were asleep.

The United States will soon be back in good hands. Besides making America more predictable and accountable, President-elect Joe Biden’s victory has important implications for democracies around the world.

Europe’s own Trumpians – Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and de facto leader Jaros? Aw Kaczy? Skiing – have already been orphaned by Trump’s political demise. As Europeans contemplate their own elections – in the Netherlands and Germany in 2021, and in France in 2022 – populist parties will make less pretense of channeling the course of history.

In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson – a consummate political weathervane – is already moving with the new political winds. After the loss of Trump, he finally fired his populist Brexit guru Dominic Cummings and signaled he would create a new identity for the post-Trump world.

The second reason for being in a good mood is that COVID-19 vaccines are on the way. This will allow a gradual return to normality and the way in which they have been developed should reaffirm our support for international cooperation. It was nothing if not inspiring to see the first vaccine come from BioNTech, a company funded by the European Union and run by two German scientists of Turkish origin. Given the justified concerns about “vaccine nationalism,” it is important that people understand that internationalism, not parochialism, is the way out of this and other global crises.

This brings me to the third reason for optimism: encouraging news on the climate front. As many commentators have noted, climate change could lead to an even more serious crisis than COVID-19. But following a massive 7% drop in greenhouse gas emissions this year, we at least know what is possible. And now that governments have proven themselves capable of spending whatever it takes in an emergency, they will face increasing pressure to invest in the technologies needed for a rapid transition to clean energy.

The fourth cause of joy is the return of faith in government. COVID-19 has reminded everyone of how valuable a competent public administration can be. He also drew new attention to the need for redistribution. After the 2008 financial crisis, many hoped that the dominant neoliberal orthodoxy would give way to social democracy and greater political control over the economy. Instead, we got bank bailouts and other blatant examples of “socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor”.

After a decade of painful austerity and the political upheaval it has brought about, governments are finally assuming more responsibility for public welfare. Mainstream parties, including Democrats in the United States, are pushing policies to support working people and the middle class, offering hope that structural inequalities, which leave many to feel “left behind” (and therefore open to appeals populists), will finally be addressed.

This brings us to the last reason to be happy. The pandemic has triggered a reconsideration of the global system. Instead of unregulated hyper-globalization, many great powers are looking for ways to reconcile appetites for cheap goods, advanced technologies, and other benefits of trade with increased control over internal affairs. Whether it is “decoupling” in the United States, “dual circulation” in China or “strategic autonomy” in Europe, long-awaited political debates are underway.

Here I find the European conversation particularly encouraging, as it aims to channel the desire for more control in a way that prevents self-defeating nationalism. The EU’s quest for sovereignty covers at least five areas (economic and financial issues, public health, digitization, climate policy and security), and Europeans have made good progress in all of them. The creation of a 750 billion euro ($ 915 billion) stimulus fund shows that countries like Germany are ready to cross their traditional red lines in the interest of solidarity.

Of course, it is too early to declare victory in any of our current battles. Biden will find it difficult to rule a country polarized in the face of Republican resistance. Providing vaccines to the whole world will be a huge logistical challenge. The major competing powers could still derail the climate agenda in the run-up to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in November.

The threat of recession and new debt crises could exacerbate inequalities, heralding a return to more toxic politics. The rebirth of the European dream will depend on the outcome of hotly contested national elections.

But heading into 2021, things look a lot better than they were just a few months ago. We now have at least five reasons to celebrate the New Year.