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Members of the French conservative political party – Les Républicains, (LR) – will not hold a primary to nominate their 2022 presidential candidate, but will choose their candidate at a closed-door conference on December 4.
Fifty-eight percent of LR members are in favor of holding a convention in which only up-to-date paying members will have a say in who represents them in the 2022 presidential race.
The result of the electronic vote organized on Friday and Saturday is good news for Xavier Bertrand, currently leading the polls, and opposed to the idea of organizing an open primary.
Those in favor of a primary – namely Valérie Pécresse and Michel Barnier – may well be frustrated by this latest turn of events, but have agreed to follow the line.
To be in the running, each candidate must collect 250 signatures. In addition, as part of the selection process, anyone whose platform does not conform to traditional party values may be excluded.
This newly added clause aims to prevent the participation of candidates like the far-right contender Eric Zemmour, who “is not part of our political family,” Christian Jacob, president of the LR party, told reporters.
Party divisions
Jacob said the main reason for holding such a vote is to “avoid division”. He added that “a closed-door debate would allow all members to unite behind a single candidate.”
“Party members no longer want to have an open vote because they have bad memories of their previous experience. They want to regain the power to choose “, explained to France Info Rémy Lefebvre, professor of political science in Lille.
In 2016, the LR primary proved to be a popular option with more than four million votes cast in both rounds, giving François Fillon a landslide victory with 66%, in a battle with Alain Juppé. However, it marked the start of an irreparable division in the party.
Several members like Edouard Philippe, Bruno Le Maire, Gérald Darmanin have decided to separate and join Emmanuel Macron.
Pascal Perrineau, professor at Sciences Po believes that Xavier Bertrand, currently president of the Hauts-de-France regional council, will have an advantage over his rivals.
Even if he officially left the LR party in 2017, Bertrand has always consistently maintained his opposition to a primary, an act that allows him “to send a clear message to the Republicans”.
Bertrand, Pécresse and Barnier will be joined by Eric Ciotti and Philippe Juvin in the potential line-up. The only thing that will set them apart from one another will be their performance in the polls, says Lefebvre.
Chaotic story
If Bertrand remains ahead of the others with between 15 and 17% of the voting intentions, analysts believe that this is not enough to lead him to a second round of the future presidential election, which begins to resemble that of 2017; a duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.
In a poll published on Sunday by the Journal du Dimanche, 63% of LR supporters said they believed Bertrand had a chance of beating Macron in the 2022 roster, compared to Barnier’s 11% and Pécresse 8%.
“Bertrand is perceived as the one who can beat his opponents”, explains Frédéric Dabi, the managing director of the Ifop polling group which carried out the JDD survey.
“Considering the fact that right-wing supporters have lost the last two elections and have witnessed a chaotic history in recent times, this could be his trump card.”
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