France’s overheating will have a “ new climate ” by the end of the century

Sweltering summers and intense tropical nights will become the norm across France by the turn of the century if humans do not step up the fight against climate change, a Météo France report warned.

Today’s mild weather conditions will disappear anyway, say the study’s authors, with the Alps, the Pyrenees, the Côte d’Azur and southern Occitania being the hardest hit by global warming.

“For the next two or three decades, the future is already written,” said Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, deputy director of climatology at Météo France. The world – adding the future beyond will depend on our efforts to reduce emissions.

“Either the warming will slow down, or we will reach a climate very far from the one we currently experience in France… a leap into the unknown, in a climate that has never been known.

Three potential futures

On the basis of a modeling carried out for the UN, the climatologists of the French national forecaster produced regional-scale estimates adapted from three potential scenarios of global emissions.

The first involves a drastic reduction in greenhouse gases to achieve carbon neutrality by 2070 (warming of + 1 ° C), the second shows an increase in emissions until the middle of the century only (warming of + 2 , 2 ° C), and the third is from a world with uncontrolled fossil fuel consumption (warming of + 4.5 ° C).

The two most pessimistic scenarios are far removed from the objectives of the Paris agreement, which hopes to limit warming to 1.5 ° C – a threshold that could be reached as early as 2024.

Using UN models, the scientists studied the repercussions for France over three periods: 2021-2050, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The warming in each scenario is contained at around 1 ° C until 2040, when the three trajectories diverge sharply.

Even under the most optimistic conditions forecast, the number of heatwave days in France is about to double. In the second scenario, they would triple to quadruple, and in the most extreme scenario, they would be multiplied by five to ten.

The high mountain regions of the Southern Alps and the Pyrenees will experience the most dramatic rise in temperatures, up to 6 ° C or 7 ° C above levels seen at the start of this century, dramatically shortening ski seasons.

North-west France, especially Brittany, will suffer the least.

Citizen’s convention thwarted

Environmental NGOs have criticized the government’s lack of ambition for a bill that they say “sabotages” the work of 150 citizens who have been asked to develop emission reduction proposals for the country.

Well-known French climatologist Jean Jouzel says the Météo France report highlights the country’s vulnerability to climate change and the urgency for France to meet its climate commitments.

“France must work three times faster to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions,” he said. The world. “It is a pity that all the proposals of the Citizen’s Climate Convention have not been implemented.”