Global wind power capacity will increase by 60% over the next 5 years

The outlook for the global wind market is on the rise. According to the latest update from Wood Mackenzie on the global wind energy market, global wind power generation capacity is expected to increase by 60% over the next five years.

Our latest forecasts point to a 5 gigawatt upgrade in the global offshore sector alone, generating 129 gigawatts of new capacity and a compound annual growth rate of 26 percent for the growing segment.

In the report, we provide a comprehensive badysis of the global wind market and an in-depth badysis of decommissioning and decommissioning by region for offshore and onshore segments. Below are some highlights of this quarter's edition.

Life beyond the US PTC

Eligible buyers are mobilizing to capitalize on the tax credit to produce electricity from renewable energy sources before the expiry of the total value incentive in 2020 , then gradually. The qualified developers for wind projects in 2017 are entitled to 80% of the total amount of credit, which stimulates the growth of the US wind market.

New US-level targets and strengthening renewable energy portfolio standard mechanisms across the country are expected to support post-TPC demand.

As a result, Wood Mackenzie improved its outlook for the US market by 16% qoq, as evidenced by a 3.8 gigawatt upgrade in 2021 alone.

A modest upgrade of 1% from the previous quarter in Latin America resulted from short-term upgrades in Brazil and Mexico. Demand in the Brazilian free market is expected to have a positive impact on forecasts by 2020-2022, while rising demand for C & I in Mexico will support a record year in 2019.

The outlook for Europe is depressing as sub-regions are degraded

The outlook for Northern Europe has been improved by 6% in forecasts. This should compensate for a rather bleak update of the outlook in Europe, while the other sub-regions combine for a 2.2 gigawatt decommissioning.

Permit challenges and under-subscription of onshore bids in Germany and France have dampened growth. However, the growing appetite for unsubsidized projects and the proliferation of C & I demand in Northern Europe both support a modest 0.6% improvement for Europe over the quarter. latest.

Increasing competition from solar energy poses a challenge to the African wind market

The slow development of the project due to political instability, immature support mechanisms and increased competition from solar energy results has resulted in a slight deterioration of our wind energy forecast. in Africa.

Green ambitions in Africa, however, are more present than ever. Renewable energy is attractive in the region because wind and solar projects can be built much faster than other energy sources. However, as solar energy becomes more and more economical, the African wind market is facing fierce competition.

Political delays improve short-term prospects in China

China's onshore and offshore policy maturities are underpinning an increase of 2.9 gigawatts in the country compared with last quarter's forecast.

Onshore developers are eager to comply with a new policy requiring the commissioning of projects by the end of 2020 to take advantage of guaranteed feed-in tariffs before the start of an era without grant. Offshore developers must put the projects into operation by the end of 2021 if they want to use the current level of offshore TRGs.

The story is not quite positive in the APAC region, however. Current market conditions in India have compromised the region's near-term outlook, resulting in a 4% decline from last quarter's report. Government-imposed auction price caps and delays in the commissioning of the awarded projects significantly slowed India's near-term growth forecast – a 24 percent drop from 2019 to 2022.

In addition, reliability issues in Thailand have resulted in a 37 per cent decline over the outlook for the next decade, with the government focusing more on other technologies.

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Learn more about WoodMac's second quarter global market outlook here.