[ad_1]
The federal elections in Germany, held on September 26, were among the most fiercely contested in the country. It came at a time of crises, including the retirement of Chancellor Angela Merkel, the impact of the pandemic and a slowdown in the German economy. In July, floods demonstrated the impact of climate change. These were important questions on the minds of nearly 60 million voters, of which 70% voted.
Coalitions are inherent in the German electoral system. Since 2005, when Angela Merkel took office as Chancellor, her four governments have been coalitions. The second term was in partnership with the pro-market Liberal Democratic Party (FDP). The other three terms saw a “GroKo” or a grand coalition between the CDU and the SPD.
In the current elections, the SPD emerged as a marginal winner with 206 seats and 25.7% of the vote, while the CDU’s share of the vote fell to an all-time high of 24.1% and could only win 196 seats. The Greens came in third with a share of the vote of 14.8%, a huge improvement from 8.9% in 2017. They have 118 seats, their highest total on record. The FDP has 11.5% and 92 seats. The Bundestag will be exceptionally large with 735 members in 2021. The focus is on the Greens and the FDP. These two parties have more than 25 percent of the vote and 210 seats. They will decide to support either the SPD or the CDU. The mandate seems to belong to the SPD and the three parties could try to reproduce their government “at the traffic lights” in Rhineland-Palatinate.
The Greens and the FDP must coordinate their political preferences, taking into account their relative strengths while negotiating a coalition. Learning from the experiences of 2017, when the contradictions between the Greens and the FDP led to a split, the two parties wisely decided to talk to each other before addressing a larger party.
The CDU and the SPD have learned to coexist. Small parties remain a problem. The last time the Greens were in power in Berlin was in 1998 with the SPD, when they only had 5 percent of the vote. With a 15 percent share of the vote, they must realize that their responsibility is to run a government by adjusting their agenda.
The Greens and the FDP both have successful partnerships with the CDU. The CDU supports the only regional government led by the Greens in Baden-Württemberg. The FDP is a partner of the CDU under the leadership of its candidate chancellor Armin Laschet, in the largest state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The Greens are in coalition with the CDU in Schleswig-Holstein. The Greens are part of regional governments in 11 of the 16 states. The FDP is a partner in three. There is no specific model for these alliances. Therefore, predicting what they will do in Berlin now is not easy.
In recent months, public support for the Greens has swung like a pendulum. By mid-2021, they had enough backing to overtake the CDU in the polls. This was mainly because they moved ideologically to the center and attracted voters from a diminished SPD and post-Merkel CDU. It didn’t last long. The Greens declared their own chancellor candidate for the first time and put in their best performance. Their share of the vote, however, reflects a sharp drop in public support compared to four months ago. It should give them a sense of responsibility.
Neglected issues like infrastructure, digital economy, climate-friendly energy policies are expected to be considered, in addition to a higher minimum wage, better business prospects and more approval. fast projects. Providing a sustainable future for young people with stable pensions for an aging population is an obvious challenge.
The Greens must realize that the climate agenda is important in Germany, but is not the main agenda at the moment. They caused unrest among German companies. The Federation of German Industries said the Greens do not trust businessmen and favor a socialist approach, which will hold back German initiative and traditional business acumen. German companies got used to Merkel, who churned out the rhetoric of values and did what was practical. Now he fears an SPD-Greens coalition. This is where the FDP could play an important role in protecting businesses. The party is wary of the Greens’ program to increase public debt beyond the set limits.
Normally, in German coalitions, the junior partner is assigned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Hans-Dietrich Genscher of the FDP was FM for nine years under Schmidt of the SPD. Guido Westerwelle of the FDP was FM under Merkel. Joschka Fischer of the Greens had the ministry under the SPD between 1998 and 2005. If this trend continues and the Greens get the Foreign Ministry, they are likely to deviate from how Germany neglected the violation of democracy and human rights by China for business reasons. The Greens have a more values-driven agenda, which could lead to problems with other partners in developing countries. The FDP can play a better role in supporting German companies and encouraging foreign FDI in strategic markets like India.
India is seeking to establish a broader relationship with post-Merkel Germany. The biennial summit of intergovernmental consultations is scheduled for later this year. It will be held between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the new German Chancellor. The meeting will be an opportunity to expand the Indo-German relationship, which has been exemplary so far – Germany supports India in the development of subways in several cities, the solar roof project, Namami Gange and skills development, among other initiatives. However, Merkel failed to persuade German companies to focus on India. A strategic push by German companies towards India, particularly on the China + 1 manufacturing hubs using the PLI scheme, would go a long way in realizing the potential of the Indo-German partnership.
This column first appeared in the print edition on September 30, 2021 under the title “Gurjit Singh”. The writer is a former ambassador to Germany; Chairperson of the African Union, ICN Working Group on Trilateral Cooperation in Africa and Professor, IIT Indore
Source link
