Has the “red list” of wildlife let the big cats of Africa down?

Lions and cheetahs are closer to extinction than the authoritative Red List of Threatened Species suggests, conservation scientists warn that sharp declines in populations may go undetected.

African big cats are currently listed as “vulnerable”, but with lion numbers falling close to the threshold for a higher risk category and heated debate over how many cheetahs actually left in the wild, experts ask if this is enough.

A “uplistation” does not guarantee protection, they say, but it would more accurately reflect their dire situation and could channel resources to help them survive in the wild, where they are recently threatened by poaching and the animal trade. company.

The stone lions guarding the Forbidden City in Beijing, the bronze ones at the feet of Admiral Nelson in Trafalgar Square, the constellation Leo and the emblems of some 20 major European football clubs all testify to the cultural significance of these majestic creatures.

But as top predators, they are also mainstays of their ecosystems – as South African environmentalist Paul Funston puts it, the “big daddy holding a lot in place”.

For half a century, the Red List of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has classified species on a spectrum ranging from “least concern” and “near threatened” to “vulnerable”, “endangered” , “Critically endangered” and “extinct in the wild”.

Basically, if at least half of a species’ population is lost in three generations, it moves to a more endangered category.

The last stop on the toboggan to oblivion is “off”.

Threat status can trigger national protection measures, restrictions on international trade, and funding from states or NGOs.

Lions and cheetahs were both reconfirmed as “vulnerable” in 2014 and are unlikely to change category in a Red List update at the IUCN Congress in Marseille, starting on Friday. .

But some experts want IUCN to go further.

“Cheetahs should be classified as ‘endangered’,” Sarah Durant, cheetah expert and member of the IUCN Cat Specialist Group, told AFP via Zoom.

As a result of the 2014 assessment, to which she contributed, Durant and 50 other conservation experts argued this case in a peer-reviewed study.

The uniform criteria applied by IUCN, they argued, do not do justice to all species.

Catastrophic declines

Overall, the global number of cheetahs is estimated to have dropped from around 30% to around 7,000 within three generations, or 15 years.

To put that in perspective, the ratio of people to cheetahs on Earth is about a million to one.

Although steep, the drop was still well below the 50 percent threshold for being placed on the “endangered” list.

But that assessment is probably overly optimistic, scientists say, as much of the data comes from protected areas, such as national parks and game reserves, even though that’s not where most cheetahs are found. .

About three-quarters of the feline’s range – and about two-thirds of its population – are in unprotected areas where the solitary feline must contend with scarce prey, fragmented habitat, and deadly encounters. with ranchers defending their cattle.

“We are measuring the population decline in the region where they are doing best,” Durant said.

In the longer term, the picture is even darker.

The cheetah was once a top predator in most of Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and India, but today it occupies only a fraction – less than 10% – of its historical range.

And since 1900, their numbers have fallen by more than 90%.

“These are catastrophic declines,” said Durant, professor of conservation science at the Zoological Society of London.

Lions have not fared any better, even though their population in the wild exceeds 20,000, said Funston, senior director of the lion program at conservation NGO Panthera.

In the 2014 assessment, to which he contributed, it was found that their global population had fallen by 43% over three generations – 21 years – missing a mustache reclassification threshold.

hunt

Unlike cheetahs, lions live in groups or herds, and almost exclusively in protected areas.

But that doesn’t mean they’re always easy to locate.

“Every time we go to see the smallest detail, we find that there are fewer lions than we thought, usually three, four or even ten times fewer,” Funston told AFP.

In 2017, Funston conducted an intensive survey of two large national parks in southeastern Angola, where conservation authorities estimated the population to be around 1,000.

“The actual numbers were so low that we couldn’t make a proper scientific estimate from them,” he said.

“We concluded that there were 10 to 30 lions left.”

The main driver of lion decline is industrial-scale bushmeat poaching, be it the lions themselves or their prey.

Trophy hunting, habitat loss, and conflict with humans also threaten animals.

‘Influence’ effect

Since 2014, new threats have appeared.

“Particularly in southern Africa, we are suddenly seeing an increase in the poaching of lions for parts of the body” – particularly teeth, claws and bones – to supply a booming market in South East Asia and Southeast Asia. China for fake health and virility essences, Funston said. .

This illegal trafficking was spurred on by the controversial 10-year-old commercial captive lion breeding industry, according to a recent report he co-wrote.

From 2011 to 2019, poaching of body parts – evident from dismembered carcasses left behind – accounted for over 60 percent of all lion deaths in Mozambique’s Limpopo National Park, with a marked increase from from 2014.

For cheetahs, the new threat comes from the Gulf states, where a demand for pets has fueled a rapid trade in cubs, especially from the Horn of Africa, where a subspecies is bordering on the extinction.

Social media is also driving demand for live big cats.

“Influencers are flying out of Dubai to have their photo taken with a cheetah or a lion to increase traffic on Instagram,” Durant said, pointing to a recent exposure from the Bellingcat website.

Investment is one of the keys to protection.

In Central and West Africa, spending is only about $ 50 to $ 100 per year per square kilometer, according to Funston.

No wonder, he says, that both regions have lost more than 90 percent of their large wildlife.

In southern Africa, however, where lion populations have increased, $ 500 to $ 800 is invested annually per square kilometer.

Craig Hilton-Taylor, who heads the IUCN Red List Unit, defended its classification process as “robust” and said experts had looked at a full range of issues.

But he acknowledged that without the efforts of southern African countries, “the lion would have been upgraded from ‘vulnerable’ to ‘endangered’.”

“If the experts redo the assessment and project themselves into the future rather than just looking into the past, they might be able to cross the threshold,” he told AFP.