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On September 5, officers of an elite Special Forces unit overthrew the Guinean President Alpha Condé, 83, in a coup. The nation of 13 million people is now under the control of the junta leader Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, who dissolved the government and made a series of statements. These include an assurance of calm for the vital mining sector.
The coup d ‘état was greeted with celebrations in the streets. He also received the support of opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. But there is a lot of uncertainty as to what happens next.
Here are five things observers should know about Guinea as events unfold.
1. Guineans were frustrated with Condé’s presidency. But their frustrations are beyond him.
Condé became president in 2010 in what was widely regarded as Guinea’s first democratic presidential election. The election itself was not without its problems, including allegations of fraud and episodes of violence. Long leader of an opposition political party, Condé had spent decades in exile in France and had even served part of a prison sentence in Guinea accused (probably wrongly) of trying to overthrow the government.
When Condé was elected, the infrastructure was poor. Running water and electricity were scarce, roads were poorly maintained, and schools and hospitals lacked resources. Job opportunities were few and those that paid a living wage were almost non-existent. Police and military forces are said to have taken bribes from the population rather than protecting them. Political dissent has met with violence.
He pledged to stimulate the economy and make much-needed improvements to national infrastructure.
But the results have been mixed. Large-scale mining projects have failed to benefit most citizens. A dam intended to expand access to electricity has displaced thousands of people. And political dissent continued to be suppressed. A common criticism of the government is that little has been accomplished since independence.
Still, Condé was re-elected in 2015. And instead of stepping down at the end of his second term in 2020, he held a referendum on a new constitution in 2019, resetting the clock to his two-term limit. . He ran for and won a third term in 2020.
From 2019 to 2020, Guinean security forces responded to popular protests against the referendum and the controversial elections with deadly violence, killing dozens of civilians and injuring many more. Demonstrators and opposition leaders were also arrested in large numbers.
2. Guineans celebrate the coup, but still fear the army.
Videos of Guineans dancing in the streets and applauding as vans full of soldiers march through Conakry have been circulating on social media. But Guineans have already experienced military rule and they know the consequences can be dangerous.
When President Sékou Touré died in office in 1984, a group of army officers staged a coup. Their leader was Colonel Lansana Conté, who declared himself president and remained in office until his death in 2008. The last years of Conté’s reign saw multiple instances of military violence against civilians, especially during a series of popular demonstrations in 2007.
As soon as Conté died, another junta took power. This was led by Captain Moussa “Dadis” Camara. Dadis was initially popular for his public condemnations of the Conté administration’s abuses, but began to lose support when he suggested he intended to stay in power.
When leaders of opposition political parties staged a rally in Conakry’s national stadium to protest the junta’s continued hold over the presidency, soldiers barricaded the stadium and fired into the crowd, killing at least 150 people and brutally raping dozens of women.
Dadis was removed from power and multiple military and international actors collaborated to organize the democratic transition of 2010, during which Condé was elected president.
3. Guinea is rich in resources, but this has not helped most Guineans.
Guinea’s economy is based on its mineral wealth. It has the largest known reserves of bauxite in the world, the ore used to produce aluminum. The country also has significant deposits of iron ore.
The economic uncertainty that followed the coup has caused bauxite and aluminum prices to soar on world markets.
Condé has made the mining sector a high priority, and Guinea’s bauxite production increased massively during his presidency. But while mining accounts for a third of the country’s economy, most Guineans have not taken advantage of it. Instead, many felt its impacts on land and water to be actively harmful to their agrarian livelihoods.
4. Guinea is ethnically and linguistically diverse. New leaders might seek to manipulate these differences.
One of the legacies of Guinea’s post-independence socialist period, when the government emphasized national unity above all else, is that Guineans were reluctant to privilege ethnic identity over national identity. The ethnic groups of Guinea are complex and include the Peul people (also known as the Fulbe), the Malinké (also known as the Maninka), the Susu and the Forestier people. Forestier is a collective term for members of many smaller ethnic groups in the forest region of Guinea.
However, this changed considerably with the presidential elections of 2010, when Condé, who was from the Malinké group, was opposed to Cellou Dalein Diallo, a Fulani.
The population has divided their allegiance between the two candidates along ethnically defined borders. Condé’s repeated victories over Diallo at the polls in 2015 and 2020 have resulted in polarization between their parties – which draw on ethnically cultivated bases.
Colonel Doumbouya seems for the moment to have attracted the support of Guineans of all ethnicities. He did not phrase the military takeover in ethnic terms, speaking instead of carrying out the will of the “people”.
But as events unfold, he and other figures in the military (where the Fulbe are under-represented) may try to play on loyalties and ethnic differences to consolidate their power. Opposition politicians can do the same, if given the opportunity.
5. Guinea has never had a war. But his people have lived through tumultuous times, and more may be imminent.
Guinea has never had a war, although it has many common predictors for one. These include conflicts in neighboring countries, extreme poverty, ethnically polarized politics, and a history of oppressive governments.
The conflict in Guinea would have disastrous effects on the West African region. But even if the country continues to avoid war, Guineans may well find themselves in increasingly precarious positions during the current military takeover and a future transition to civilian rule.
Susanna Fioratta has previously received funding from the Social Science Research Council, the National Science Foundation, the Wenner-Gren Foundation for Anthropological Research, and Fulbright.
By Susanna Fioratta, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Bryn Mawr
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