If Belgium is to beat Brazil in the quarter-finals, how can they do it? | Jonathan Wilson | Soccer

T was a spell, for the first 20 minutes or so, when it seemed that Mexico might be disturbing Brazil. Carlos Vela took the best on Fagner in Brazil and he thought that Mexico, as he had done throughout the group stage, was struggling to convert decent positions into opportunities. But as the game continued, it became clear that Brazil was comfortably holding Mexico at arm's length. These first 20 minutes, however, perhaps offer Belgium the best hope possible.

One of the least discussed aspects of Tite's Brazilian Revolution is the way he reinforced his defensive determination. In 25 games, Brazil has conceded only six goals. In this tournament, they only fled from one – and the header of Swiss Steven Zuber from a corner that could have been ruled out for a push.

The biggest problem for Belgium to beat Brazil is to score against a well-drilled defense. It's the balance of which Titus speaks incessantly.

Tactics are only a part of it. Titus is an extremely impressive figure who projects calm and confidence, but there is always a feeling that Brazil could be emotionally fragile. Zuber's goal took them out of their stride and the recriminations over this slightly controversial decision, as well as the fury surrounding each challenge on Neymar – who continues to try to turn the World Cup into a personal biopic – suggests that the team is not the only one. hysteria that defeated them semifinal four years ago may not have been entirely erased. It is perhaps, in fact, an inevitable corollary of the expectation that surrounds them.

But this first quarter against Mexico suggested a possible tactical opportunity for Belgium. Once Dani Alves was excluded from the team following an injury, Brazil has always seemed vulnerable to the right back. Danilo played in the draw against Switzerland since Fagner was deployed there. Vela, and Hirving Lozano when he moved to the Mexican left, both made him look slow on the turn. The problem for Belgium, however, is that their 3-4-2-1 does not necessarily push a player tight against the side.

Yannick Carrasco may advance from the left wing but he is likely to have his hands full with Willian. That means that Eden Hazard, who works almost like a Romelu Lukaku, with Dries Mertens at his side, has to shoot to the left to try to put pressure on Fagner.

But this in turn leaves an additional problem, one that Mexico faced, namely how to get enough players in the box to enjoy it. If Hazard pulls left, Kevin De Bruyne has the responsibility to go join Mertens and Lukaku in the penalty area.

The absence of Casemiro by suspension breaks the highly effective triangle that he has with the two central defenders, Miranda and Thiago. Silva had formed, but the back of the midfield is an area in which Brazil has covered. Fernandinho usually operates as a breakwater in front of two central defenders, dropping between them if necessary.

It is, however, a more dynamic presence than Casemiro and while that means it may be more effective in countering counterattacks. He may offer Belgium, and De Bruyne in particular, an opportunity to fight against him

Belgium itself has a problem behind the midfielder, Axel Witsel being very much at fault for Japan's second goal in their round of 16 match. If he is also lax against Neymar or Philippe Coutinho, it is difficult to see much hope for Belgium.

Against Mexico, Brazil abandoned the fairly orthodox 4-3-3 that it had used for the group. 4-2, with Neymar operating more centrally and Willian descending deeper. Neymar may benefit from the more central role but it would be a surprise if Tite did not return to 4-3-3 against Belgium.

With the 4-4-2, Belgium would have three against two at the back. with two midfielders plus two strikers inside against two in the middle of the midfield, which would allow them to overman even though Coutinho played tight on the Brazilian left.

As long as Carrasco and the right-back, Thomas Meunier, were able to keep themselves on their flanks, which, in theory at least, would allow Belgium to control the center of the field and probably possession – although as Brazil has shown against Mexico, it does not necessarily concern them.

4-3-3, however, immediately causes problems for Belgium by asking Willian to target the space behind Carrasco, while Neymar operates in the awkward area between right central defender Toby Alderweireld, and Miller.

potential for a four out of three in mid-ld ld, but if Meunier is repulsed, Marcelo may advance to give Brazil an extra man to his left. This side of the field, with Marcelo behind Coutinho and Neymar, seems to be vulnerable, but up here their positional work has been good enough that they have not been exposed.

This testifies to Tite's work. Belgium may have been more comfortable in the tournament, but Brazil seemed much more balanced.