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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday lowered its economic growth forecast for Saudi Arabia this year to 1.8%, down 0.6 points from previous economic forecasts in October, due to lower oil prices and output growth.
In 2019, the IMF envisages a growth of 1.8% in Saudi Arabia, against 2.4% predicted last October, while the forecast of economic growth for 2020 of 0.2 point compared to October was 0.2 percentage point.
In its report on the World Economic Outlook (WEO) released Monday, the IMF expects growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan to remain moderate at 2 , 4% this year, before recovering to about 3% in 2020. A country update for this region was provided to Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer.
"Several factors are weighing on the region's prospects, including weak growth in oil production, which offsets the expected recovery in non-oil activity (Saudi Arabia); tightening of financing conditions (Pakistan); US sanctions (Iran); and, in several economies, geopolitical tensions, "said the IMF in its WEO Update, which also notes that the global expansion has weakened.
The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent below last October's estimates.
Commenting on oil prices, the IMF said today: "Crude oil prices have been volatile since August, under the influence of supply, including US oil and gas export policy. more recently, the fear of slowing global demand. In early January, crude oil prices were around $ 55 per barrel, and markets were expecting prices to remain broadly at this level over the next 4 to 5 years. "
In its regional outlook in November, the IMF said rising oil prices may have helped the Arab Gulf economies recover, but the risks remain, as economies remain vulnerable to sharp fluctuations in oil prices. .
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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