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What has just happened?
MEPs were again unable to find a majority for any alternative Brexit agreement in a series of indicative votes, as was the case in the first vote of this type last Wednesday. The four options were rejected, although one of them – a plan to leave with a permanent customs union – was lost by only three votes.
What were the results?
The motion on the customs union, presented by veteran conservative Ken Clarke, was rejected by 273 votes to 276. That was a slight improvement: the majority against the plan last week was six. A multi-party motion for a "common market 2.0" was reduced by 21 votes (261 to 282); a call for any final agreement to be submitted to a referendum be lost by 280 against 292; and a plan to give MPs the power to extend Brexit, or at least to choose between the absence of a transaction or the revocation of section 50, waived from 191 to 292.
Have there been any surprises?
Yes and no. It was not really expected that a measure would reach the majority, but supporters of the Customs Union and the Common Market 2.0 had hoped – the first because the margin of defeat had been so reduced the last time, the second because work had changed its position. bad in favor of the idea.
What sank the two tight shots?
In the vote of the customs union, the vast majority of conservatives in the "no lobby" included a mix of people for whom the plan was not enough (Brexity) (the DUP, some outgoing workers) and those for whom it it was a hard start (Lib Dems, the independent group). Some reluctant members abstained.
The Common Market 2.0 regime suffered from a similar mix of opponents, and concerns over the idea of not ending the freedom of movement led 25 Labor MPs to challenge the bad, mainly those in where voters were allowed to vote. 33 other Labor deputies abstained.
Will members ever agree on anything?
Who knows? It was expected that an imminent departure in the absence of any agreement – which must now take place in 11 days – could focus minds, create quick links and compromises. But that has not been done yet. We will now focus on a possible third round of indicative votes, perhaps on Wednesday. Jeremy Corbyn, reacting to the results in the House of Commons, called for this line of conduct, saying that if it was "good enough that the Prime Minister has three chances to reach his agreement," the same should be true. Apply to the deputies.
Does this mean that Theresa May's plan is back?
It has never disappeared, at least as far as the government is concerned. Although he had three times the agreement (or in the last case, half of it) in the House of Commons and he lost 230, 149 and 58 votes respectively, it seems likely that the deputies will have a fourth round later this week. In response to the results, Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said May's plan was the only viable option, given that the House of Commons had refused to leave without an agreement and to cancel Brexit. But with the DUP and Tory Hardline Brexiters still convinced that they can not support the plan, it still seems unlikely that it will be adopted.
Who will be happiest?
MPs who advocate alternative plans are certainly not that bad – Conservative Nick Boles has resigned from the party bad after the defeat of his Common Market Plan 2.0, saying the government has refused to compromise.
May Theresa May take pleasure in the fact that MPs are trying to "take control" of the Brexit process in the midst of many criticisms of her alleged incompetence and are just as incapable of finding a way to get their way through the herbs. She also does not face the immediate choice that would result from a positive vote in favor of a more moderate Brexit: accept that and lose half of her cabinet or refuse it and not accept an agreement, losing so the other half. Some members concerned about Brexit had even indicated that if May pleaded for a customs union, they could vote with the Labor Party on a motion of censure aimed at overthrowing the government.
But it is still facing an intractable decision, a tick-off, a mutinous party, a discontented British public and a frankly disconcerted EU. And it's only Monday.
So what happens next?
No calendar has yet been agreed. The cabinet meets Tuesday morning for what will be an extremely important meeting, even by the standards of the last weeks and months. It seems that we can then expect another vote on the May agreement later in the week and perhaps more indicative votes.
Will this lead to a long delay on Brexit and the UK's participation in the European elections?
Given Parliament's strong opposition to the lack of agreement, this seems more likely. According to officials close to the Brexit talks in Brussels earlier in the day, the UK could still leave on May 22 – the date of departure set if May's agreement is pbaded – if the House of Commons orders Downing Street to negotiate a customs union. However, the Commons did not do it.
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