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Jim Cramer of CNBC said Friday that the key to playing equities in the business cycle is when institutional investors will be encouraged to buy and sell their badets.
"If you wait until a particular cycle gets in place, you'll be too late – by the time the evidence is obvious, you've already missed the move," Cramer said. "On the other hand, if you try to move too early and the cycle does not turn, you risk being annihilated.This is why you have to be very careful before trying to anticipate a turn, but if you get it yes, the rewards are so generous that it's almost always worth a try. "
Cramer said that there was a split between the turning point of an economic cycle and its perception. The art of timing the cycle is subjective, and too much optimism can hurt the portfolio if the cycle does not materialize as expected, he added.
He suggested investors think of "Is not a mountain in enough", the timeless duet sung by Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell, when the actions come together well before anything that seems like good news.
"You do not bet on the resumption of activity, but on the patience of other fund managers," he said. "If there is no wide enough valley for some of these bigger dogs, then, well, that's the schedule." When you can not play the game, you have to face the players."
Cramer has reviewed what he thinks has been the most bizarre, but lucrative, battle of all industries in recent weeks.
Cycle of oil
The oil cycle has been confused because there is a lot of disagreement about the industry, Cramer said.
On Thursday, Core Laboratories CEO David Demshur told the host of "Mad Money" that the drilling cycle would change over time, now that oil prices have stabilized. But Cramer pointed out that there was no sign of change in Core Labs or Schlumberger stocks, and that those who tried to predict the change have "crashed".
Anadarko's shareholders, however, made profits after Chevron and Occidental Petroleum decided to buy the oil producer, he said.
The portfolio managers, however, stayed away from the sector, which led to a recession, he added.
It is too late to sell petroleum products, and this is not the perfect time to double the sector, said Cramer.
"I think the dramatic growth in production in the Permian Basin in Texas will keep oil prices going for years," he said. the crude is commercial. "
Semiconductors
Stock prices in the semiconductor sector reached their lowest level about five months ago, Cramer said. But that does not mean that the industry has infinite room for maneuver. After all, basic chips like flash and DRAM are selling less and less, he added.
The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, which tracks semiconductor companies such as Micron and Western Digital, has already grown more than 35% this year.
"That said, if you do not have them already, I think the group may run out of potential even before the start of the cycle," said Cramer.
Construction cycle 5G
Everyone is on the mark for the takeover of 5G, the next generation of wireless technology, said Cramer. Qualcomm, Broadcom and Apple are played early, but the presenter suggested investors be cautious, as the continuation of cycles that have not yet started can be risky.
"Last night, Skyworks Solutions had a good quarter and talked a lot about 5G, but the market would not like it," Cramer said. "My takeaway? 5G is no longer a magic elixir, but it's a valley that officials have been able to see through."
Cycle cars
Cramer called the automotive cycle "the most vicious and insidious cycle of all".
It's a difficult sector to predict because consumers' buying habits are changing dramatically, he said. Liability can be attributed to the cost of ownership or the sharing economy, and shares of companies such as 3M and DowDuPont have been affected because of their exposure to space, he added.
"People are now giving up on this decision because it's just been too expensive for players trying to play against the auto sector," Cramer said.
Disclosure: The Cramer Charitable Trust holds shares in Apple and Dow Chemical.
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