Investors wait for ECB economic stimulus signal – live business | Business

Hello and welcome to our slippery coverage of the global economy, financial markets, the eurozone and businesses.

Boris Johnson began his reign as prime minister with a brutal reform of the government. He promised Tuesday to steal the ideas of his rival Jeremy Hunt, but he did not want him in his office. The most important posts are Chancellor Sajid Javid, State Secretary Priti Patel and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. Keen Brexiteer Andrea Leadsom is responsible for business affairs and will probably give a somewhat different tone to her predecessor, Greg Clark.

"Revenge" is the word on our main story this morning. You can read all these bloody details about it here, while Britain is preparing for what could be the hottest day of all time.

By excluding any early intervention by Johnson on the Brexit (and it's hard to see now how he could take a tougher stance than ever, about a Brexit without agreement), the key economic news of the day will be certainly the most promising. European Central BankLast announcement of monetary policy.

And, oh, how times change. A year ago, most economists thought that ECB President Mario Draghi would preside over at least one rate hike during his tenure. Now, these same economists are wondering whether the ECB's Governing Council on rate setting will announce today its intention to reduce interest rates at its next meeting in September – or whether it could take the plunge today with a new economic recovery cycle.

"The arguments for a further easing of the ECB were strengthened yesterday by the publication of weaker-than-expected PMI surveys for the euro area for July," said Lee Hardman, a foreign exchange badyst at MUFG Bank.

This is another disappointing sign for the ECB which had previously hoped that growth would begin to pick up in the second half of this year. They are now resigned more and more to a longer economic downturn.

The ECB's response could imply a lower rate cut than usual, and even a re-acceleration of quantitative easing, the purchases of bonds that have been such an important feature of monetary policy during the last decade.

Draghi leaves the ECB on October 31, which means that he will probably have gone through eight years during which the central bank has constantly boosted the economy of the eurozone.

In the UK, there is big news from companies in the defense sector, like Cobham – the Dorset-based manufacturer of civil and military aerospace systems – is being taken by US private equity group Advent International for £ 4 billion. The offer of 165 pence per share represents a premium of 50.3% over the average share price of the last three months.

L & # 39; s calendar

• 9am BST: Germany Ifo business confidence (July)
• 11:00 BST: UK CBI Distribution Survey (retail) (July)
• 12.45 BST: Interest rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB)
• 13:30 BST: ECB press conference with Mario Draghi
• 13:30 Paris time: US orders for durable goods (June)