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Iraq 's crumbling electricity sector is planning a long overdue restructuring to cope with US pressure to stop Iran' s electricity imports and end summer protests against chronic power cuts.
With a rookie at the helm, the Ministry of Electricity is studying various options, including the modernization of stations and lines to reduce waste, energy import and improvement of the collect invoices to increase revenue.
Baghdad hopes this will generate enough megawatts to fuel demand by the summer, when cuts can leave millions of people powerless for up to 20 hours a day.
But he also has a deadline earlier to abide by.
When Washington reimposed the sanctions imposed on Tehran in November on Tehran's nuclear program, it granted Iraq a 45-day waiver allowing it to produce a roadmap for ceasing to use the 39, Iranian electricity and gas.
Iraq ships up to 28 million cubic meters of Iranian gas daily to power its plants and directly imports up to 1,300 megawatts of Iran-produced electricity.
The Baghdad Ministry of Electricity has come up with a plan to eliminate Iranian electricity within 18 months and solve ten-year-old problems, said spokesman Musab Al. mudarris.
"In the next two weeks, we will submit to the Americans a five-year plan with annual badessments," he said.
If the US approves, they can extend the waiver "for a year or two".
"But there is no quick fix," insisted Mr. Mudarris.
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Iraq has proven reserves of 153 billion barrels of crude oil, but it needs better fuel and gas for electric turbines.
Mr. Mudarris admitted that if Iraq could do without Iranian electricity, it needed Iranian gas until it could extract its own source or capture torches from oil drilling.
By using its own fuel and Iranian gas, Iraq can produce about 16,000 megawatts of electricity.
This figure is well below demand, which hovers around 24,000 MW but can reach 30,000 in summer, when temperatures reach 50 degrees Celsius.
Much of the shortfall is technical: according to the Iraq Energy Institute (IEI), 30 to 50 percent of Iraqi losses are being lost to poor infrastructure.
Part of this is old, but pipelines and stations were also attacked by the Islamic State before Iraq pushed it back last year.
Rehabilitation is a key element of the ministry's plan.
Mr. Mudarris mentioned the recent memoranda of understanding with Siemens, valued at $ 10 billion, and with General Electric, with $ 15 billion, for the repair of infrastructure .
Together, they could add 24,000 MW in the next five years: "That would bring us to 40,000 MW," said Mudarris.
Electricity Minister Luay Al Khateeb has also asked Siemens and GE to put in place "accelerated" plans to boost electricity production by the summer.
Baghdad is looking for ways to finance these efforts, including a $ 600 million financing deal between GE, the Trade Bank of Iraq and Standard Chartered announced in late November.
Another ministerial initiative is to trade Iran's electricity against imports from other neighbors, said Mudarris, comprising 300 MW each from Turkey, Jordan, and Kuwait, as well as from the United States. Saudi solar energy.
In an alleged omen, the new Iraqi President Barham Saleh traveled to Amman, Kuwait and Riyadh on his first regional trip since taking office.
Baghdad finally wants to recover the sums lost by the mediocre departmental collection service.
In September, Iraqi protesters collect garbage cans and barbed wire to erect an improvised barricade during clashes with security forces following a demonstration against corruption and lack of basic services . AFP
"We are losing about 60% of our income to people who do not pay, and if we can reduce those losses, we can stop counting on Iran," said Mudarris.
Last year, Iraq started to privatize by using collection services to ensure that households pay their electricity bills.
Samir Hussein, an employee of the ministry's distribution department for 20 years, said the privatized collection had already reduced the breakdowns in Baghdad.
"Those who pay are paying half their consumption, which allows me to redirect megawatts to other neighborhoods, thus preventing cuts," he said.
But obstacles remain, including unpaid invoices to Iran for earlier imports.
A draft budget for 2019 indicates that Iraq will allocate some $ 800 million to "Iranian gas arrears" and about $ 350 million to Iran's electricity arrears, according to an badysis of the I & # 39; 39; IEI.
Another problem concerns the Iranian Ministry of Electricity, said Harry Estepanian, energy expert.
Neighboring Kuwait produces about the same amount of electricity as Iraq, but its ministry employs 12,000 people compared to about 140,000 in Iraq, he said.
The body is also accused of widespread corruption, on which the technocrat and prime minister, Mr Khateeb, has pledged to investigate this week.
"All that he plans is doomed to fail if he does not reform," Estepanian told Agence France-Presse.
And Iraq's five-year plan must take into account staggering consumption as cities are rebuilt after ISIS.
"Currently, Mosul, Anbar and Salahaddin are unlikely to have strong demand.After the reconstruction has begun, demand will start to increase by about 7 to 10 percent," Estepanian said.
"The gap between supply and demand is widening. It's not like in 2003 or 2013, and it will not be the same in 2023."
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