Is Russian support to Venezuela's Maduro decreasing?

The symbolism of the aid trucks, stopped by barricades on the Venezuelan-Colombian border, would have been quite familiar to anyone who would be watching from the Kremlin. He told the story of a diet out of reach, a defensive answer by default and a terrible PR.

Russia, one of the main supporters of Venezuela since Hugo Chavez came to power in 1998, finds himself with an increasingly toxic badet.

Every week, power seems to be moving away from Nicolas Maduro, successor chosen by Chavez, and his rival, the president of the illegal National Assembly, Juan Guaidó. An overwhelming majority of Western and Latin American countries now recognize his presidency.

Russia has shown few signs of a sequel. At the same time, very slightly, his calculations seem to deviate from those of Mr. Maduro and vis-à-vis the protection of more tangible badets he has left in the country.

In interviews with experts and politicians, L & # 39; Independent has registered a growing resignation that the Maduro regime would not continue in the long run. Beside that, it was clear that Moscow had few cards to play. There was little expectation of a new injection of funds into the crisis economy – and less to the setting up of a major military intervention in a country on the other side of the world.

While Russia is far from being the only major funder of Venezuela, it is without doubt its most exposed creditor.

Chinese investment is almost three times higher than the estimated 20 billion to 25 billion dollars in Moscow. But Chinese investments have followed a more pragmatic pattern and are largely repayable in oil. The Russian gamble, which includes military agreements and controversial and up-to-date participations in the oil fields, is more vulnerable to politics.

For example, the opposition-controlled National Assembly has called for the revision of some of the most recent oil agreements with Russia, Rosneft. The alleged presence of Russian mercenaries in oil installations appears to be a direct response to these threats.

Dmitry Rosenthal, Latin American expert of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said L & # 39; Independent he believed that Moscow could find a compromise with the government in power. The return circuits were probably already in play, he says. But the "discomfort" regarding the opposition's speech has remained.

"The Kremlin has been a lot more supportive of the Maduro regime than the most pragmatic China in the world, which is much more engaged in opposition," he said. "Unsurprisingly, Maduro is a much more reliable partner to protect her interests."

As with other foreign policy issues, Vladimir Putin would play a leading role in shaping Russia's response to the crisis. There has been little clue as to the president's thinking. On Wednesday, however, Bloomberg raised some ideas by citing two sources in the Kremlin, both doubting the viability of the Maduro regime.

The report was quickly rejected by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Yet, in the outer circle of Russia's foreign policy community in Parliament and the Foreign Ministry, more categorical statements of support have been weakened.

Vladimir Dzhabarov, vice chairman of the international affairs committee of Russia's upper chamber, said L & # 39; Independent Although Russia is not "backing" on its support for Maduro, it has accepted that its ally is facing a battle for its survival.

"Russia has never hidden its recognition of Maduro as the only legitimate president of the country," he said. "We understand that he ran an imperfect government and did not understand everything in the economy or in the social field. But is it really worthwhile to lead a country to revolution or collapse? We do not think so. "

Mr. Dzhabarov said that the future of Venezuela could only be resolved around the negotiating table, but that the Guaidó opposition was "not ready" to start talks. "Half of Venezuela" has always supported the Maduro regime, he said, and could be encouraged to go to the streets if their man was overthrown.

Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign expert considered close to the political elite, also suggested that Russia had little hope for the survival of the Maduro regime. But that could continue, he said, as long as there would be an army at his side, which "could be much longer than people think".

As toxic as it may seem with Maduro, what Moscow would not do is convert its support into Guaidó, which was "an American puppet".

"As terrible as the president is, Maduro is a loyal and a partner," said Lukyanov. "For Russia, it is important."