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All right Los Angeles, it's time to take a minute and think about something else: what are you going to do today to better prepare yourself for really happens here.
All those earthquakes you've felt in the last two days? Sure. The swaying, the rolling, the swimming pool that flows – all this reminds us in a disconcerting way that the foundation of our metropolis is a tank of tectonic entropy able to launch us. more than at any given moment.
For now, it's okay. The long rolling motion may have frightened you, but if you live near LA, it probably did not cause any damage.
READ MORE: Are LA buildings ready for the big?
True, the Los Angeles Times reported that several items fell from the walls at the Crate and Barrel site at The Grove. But overflights of the highway may last a day longer. The aqueducts remain uninterrupted. Mid-century dingbats remain optimistic over their shelters.
At some point, probably sooner than later, it will not be the case. The images of Ridgecrest and Trona show a small glimpse of what could happen – what will happen one day – here. Ridgecrest has 25,000 residents and over 20 million in Greater Los Angeles, the Inland Empire and San Diego.
The Friday night 7.1 shaker was described as a "major" earthquake by US Geological Survey (USGS) standards. It was the second of two major earthquakes that hit the Mojave Desert this week and the largest in southern California for about 20 years.
Just the day before, a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck around 10:30 am on July 4th. We now know that the earthquake has grown – something that seismologists like Dr. Lucy Jones warned us about, could happen to us.
Even now, seismologists point out that there is still a small chance that another potentially larger earthquake on the same fault system could still occur.
READ MORE: More than 3,000 earthquakes, more than 100 million dollars in damage: the consequences of the magnitude 7.1 earthquake continue
All earthquakes occurred approximately 125 km north of downtown Los Angeles. At this distance, the shock waves attenuate enough so that there is practically no significant damage apart from a feeling of restless security.
At the same time, a 7.1 version about four times the energy of 6.7, the strength of the Northridge earthquake in 1994 that killed 57 and dealt with about $ 35 billion worth of damage.
Numerous local faults are capable of generating earthquakes as important (and in some cases more important) than those of the Mojave of the last days. Known faults cross southern California like spaghetti with familiar names like Newport-Inglewood, the Hollywood, the Raymond, and the Puente Hills fault.
All are in one of the most densely populated metropolitan areas of the country, which means that a major earthquake on any of them would be a major disaster. Then there is the local daddy – the fault of San Andreas who is theoretically capable of generate a 8.2. An earthquake of this magnitude would release about 45 times more energy than Friday 's 7.1 and 180 times more energy than Northridge' s. San Andreas pbades 40 miles from downtown Los Angeles and pbades through the towns of Palmdale and San Bernardino.
This earthquake, a major earthquake in San Andreas, is the most disturbing possibility. Scientists estimate that the southern part of the fault – the area near Los Angeles – breaks about once every 150 years. The last time this happened, it was a morning in January, 162 years ago, in 1857, when it caused an earthquake of 7.9 that almost shook what we call Los Angeles. It lasted between one and three minutes.
The difference between an earthquake in San Andreas and a major earthquake on one of the other local faults is basically a function of scale. Where a 7.0 on the Hollywood fault would cause significant damage to the Los Angeles metropolitan area and the San Fernando Valley, it's not the same for South Orange County or Ventura. In contrast, an 8.0 on the San Andreas would cause significant damage almost everywhere between San Luis Obisbo, Tijuana and the Salton Sea.
READ MORE: Here's what earthquakes of magnitude 7.1 and 6.4 back to back look like: Ridgecrest earthquakes in photos
That's what people mean when they talk about "The Big One". The prospect of an earthquake of this magnitude is the subject of much work by the journalists, producers and writers of LAist and KPCC. Our nine-part podcast series The big one: your survival guide was published earlier this year and looks at what will happen at upcoming San Andreas slides and what you can do to prepare yourself.
On one side, it's what you already know you should do but you may not have done:
- One gallon of water per person (and pet) per day for as many days as you can store (but certainly at least three).
- Non-perishable foods
- Extra meds
- Make sure your building is properly remodeled or that your house is attached to its foundations and so on.
It also means that you have to plan with your loved ones and neighbors.
Jones, seismologist CalTech, an earthquake specialist in southern California since the Northridge earthquake, said preparing our social infrastructure was just as important as our physical infrastructure.
"I want you to go talk to someone you care about, go to your neighbor's house, go to your church, go to your school and say what can we do together?" Jones told us at the end of an interview on Saturday morning. "What will really determine how we manage a major earthquake in this dense urban area is the quality of our collaboration with our neighbors."
It means having a plan and, in fact, talking to your loved ones about what you are going to do once the ground stops shaking.
Jones added that the slightest earthquake serves as a reminder of what can and will eventually happen here.
"It's the thing supposed to be solid – the earth beneath our feet – that moves on us – it's a painful experience, long before they actually become dangerous for us," he said. she said.
So make your plan. If you are about to go out of the store, a few extra liters of water will never hurt either.
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